Clouds increase ahead of some evening showers

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday november 9 2021 sun clouds evening showers
Temperatures will remain mild today and will only take a slight hit behind a cold front tonight. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Weak Cold Front

Clouds will gradually increase today as a weak cold front approaches from the west.

Through the morning and early afternoon hours, the sun will poke in and out of the clouds. During the afternoon, the clouds will thicken up and sunshine will be harder to come by.

It will not be quite as warm as yesterday without the full sunshine, but it will still be plenty mild. Highs will be around 60 degrees for much of the area, with higher elevations just shy of 60 and the typically warmer valleys and cities getting just above 60.

No rain is expected during the daytime hours, but some light showers will move in from west to east early this evening. The rain will fall for a couple hours, then move on, exiting most of the region near or shortly after midnight. Clouds will linger through the overnight.

Rain amounts will only be a couple tenths of an inch at most. The highest amounts will probably be across the northern half of the region.

With the clouds and showers, overnight temperatures will be in the mid 40s throughout the area.

Winds will remain light through today and tonight. The wind will start from the southwest this morning before turning to the northwest this afternoon. By the evening, as the rain comes in, the wind will be nearly calm.

By Wednesday morning, the wind will be back to the northwest and will increase to near 10 mph. A few gusts could approach 25 mph before the wind dies down Wednesday afternoon.

It will be back to sunshine on Wednesday, though a few lingering clouds will be possible early, and a few new clouds will move in towards sunset.

The northwest winds behind the front will keep temperatures down a bit with highs in the low to perhaps mid 50s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 9 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Stronger Weather System

Clouds will continue to increase Wednesday night, which should help temperatures stay a bit warmer than was previously expected. Still, many areas will be near or below 35 degrees.

Thursday will be quiet during the daytime hours, but clouds will remain in place. Some sunshine may still filter through the clouds, especially in the morning. No rain is expected until after sunset.

Temperatures will gain a couple degrees over Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s.

Winds will be from the southeast and will gradually increase. By the afternoon, wind speeds will be near 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The wind will peak during the middle of the night, with speeds of 15-20 mph and some gusts over 40 mph.

Rain will move in after midnight and will linger over the eastern half of the region into Friday morning. Some of the rain could fall heavily at times. At this time, flash flooding does not look to be a concern, but it is something I am keeping a close eye on.

Temperatures Thursday night will stay close to or above 50 degrees. Friday will hold steady in the low and mid 50s. Winds will be from the west and southwest with much lighter speeds.

Colder air will start to move in Friday night with overnight lows around 40 degrees. Another wave of atmospheric energy will spread rain and snow showers in for Saturday with highs in the low and mid 40s.

Some additional small disturbances will be possible Sunday, Monday, and into next week. Lake effect will also be ongoing. Each disturbance will help enhance the lake effect and will pivot it to different areas in the region.

At this early stage, it is best to just assume there will be on and off rain and snow showers Sunday, Monday, and even Tuesday next week.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 9 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.