Climbing the Hill
The weather this week will be characterized by a steady climb in temperatures through Thursday, only for a strong cold front to knock temperatures back down in a matter of a couple hours.
Low pressure passed through last night and is making its way into northern New England this morning. Steady precipitation is long gone, but scattered rain and snow showers still linger over the Finger Lakes. This will continue to be the case much of the day, followed by some lake effect off Lake Ontario tonight.
No additional snow accumulations are expected now that the sun is up outside of a brief coating that would melt shortly after the snow shower that produced it moves on. Much of the precipitation will turn over to rain by the late morning hours.
For the most part, though, the showers today will be brief with plenty of dry time in between. Some breaks of sunshine are even expected this afternoon.
Winds will turn to the northwest by midday and increase in speed to 10-15 mph. Top gusts will be around 30 mph. The winds will make it hard for temperatures to rise much today. Look for highs in the upper 30s for higher elevations with low 40s elsewhere.
Temperatures will quickly fall to the low and mid 30s this evening. A semi-organized band of snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario and will wobble around the northern and eastern Finger Lakes.
The southern extent of the band movement should be approximately Rochester to Geneva to Ithaca to Binghamton. Most areas near and north of that line should see some snow this evening with a coating to locally an inch falling.
The band will become better organized after midnight and will consolidate over far eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, Onondaga, and northern Cortland County. Localized amounts of two or even three or four inches will be possible.
The band will lift north early in the morning and could be in the Syracuse area for the morning commute. By late morning, the band will mostly be north of the area and will become less organized. The rest of the Finger Lakes will have clouds and some sun, but nothing more than a stray shower or flurry on Tuesday.
Temperatures will only gain a couple degrees despite southwest winds with some mid 40s popping up and fewer places sticking to the upper 30s.
Up, Up, Up, then Down in a Hurry
Warmer air will start to move in before dawn Wednesday and 40s should overtake the area by the late morning. Powered by south winds will continue to drive temperatures upward, with 50s moving into the northern and western Finger Lakes during the afternoon.
The daytime hours Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, though some sunshine will be possible, especially early in the day. A few showers may also pop up as the warm air surges in.
Temperatures will remain steady Wednesday night, with 50s to the north and west with mid and upper 40s to the southeast. A strong cold front will approach on Thursday, but the speed of the front will determine how the weather unfolds.
There is a decent chance that temperatures could approach or exceed 60 degrees for a time. As the front moves through, temperatures will drop to the mid 40s in under an hour with a slower drop into the 30s thereafter.
Accompanying the front will be a band of precipitation. If this lingers long enough behind the front and persists into the nighttime hours, the rain may even change to snow.
The details on how this all ends up happening remains highly uncertain. The early takeaway at this point is that Thursday will be one of those highly changeable days where a few hours can make a huge difference. Stay tuned.
Behind this system, we will end up about where we are starting the week today. Temperatures Friday and next weekend will struggle to get much above 40 degrees. Flurries will be possible at least on Friday, but the weekend is no guarantee to remain dry.
As we head toward Thanksgiving next week, the early indications are for cold temperatures and some chances for snow. Be wary of winter hype, but be sure to check in for details if you have travel plans.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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