Temperatures on the rise ahead of cold front Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 17 2021 cloudy warming temperatures cold front thursday
The chances for rain will be low today but will increase Thursday morning. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Up Then Down

Warm air has started to push into the Finger Lakes region this morning in response to low pressure over south-central Canada.

Southeast winds caused temperatures to rise several degrees during the predawn hours. Thin clouds streaming out ahead of this weather complex made for a fiery sunrise but will otherwise keep skies rather grey today.

Some breaks of filtered sunshine will be possible, especially through the morning hours. The clouds should become thicker this afternoon and a few stray, light rain showers will be possible.

The southeast winds will turn to the south by the afternoon and increase. The strongest winds will be roughly between Route 20 and Lake Ontario, where speeds will approach 15 mph and gusts 30 mph. The wind will be lighter to the south, with speeds near or under 10 mph near the NY-PA state line.

Temperatures will vary this afternoon, with the Rochester area poking into the mid to perhaps upper 50s, while some higher elevations of Central New York get stuck in the mid 40s. Most areas should be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Little will change after the sun goes down. Winds will remain steady, clouds will continue to be in place, and precipitation chances will remain minor. Even temperatures will, for the most part, stick close to what they were before sunset. If anything, some places may increase a couple degrees this evening and overnight.

The chances for rain will increase tomorrow morning from west to east as a cold front slides in. The rain does not look like it will be overly impressive, with light on and off showers for most of the day. The rain may pick up in intensity a bit over the far eastern Finger Lakes as it departs during the afternoon. Most areas should see under a quarter-inch of precipitation.

Temperatures will make it into the mid 50s region-wide Thursday morning, but the front should move through the area by the midday hours. As the front passes, expect a quick drop into the mid and upper 40s. By the late afternoon hours, low 40s with some upper 30s will be commonplace.

This cool air will come in on west and northwest winds. These winds will not be strong, with top gusts behind the front around 20 mph.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 17 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weather This Weekend

Low and mid 30s will quickly take over after the sun sets Thursday evening. Winds will stabilize out of the west, and lake effect will develop. Early on, flurries will be possible everywhere, but as the lake effect organizes, it will sink south into the Southern Tier.

For most of the area, the lake effect will just be minor flurries with no accumulation. The best chance for steadier snow and some minor accumulations will be in Allegany County.

For much of Friday, it looks like the Lake Erie band will just clip the southern reaches of the area while the Lake Ontario band stays to the north. Eventually, though, showers and flurries will make their way south off Lake Ontario into the Finger Lakes.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 30s and low 40s.

An area of high pressure will build in Friday night, causing the lake effect to diminish and winds to turn back to the south. As skies clear, the temperature will drop with little warming effect from the wind. Overnight lows will be widespread in the 20s.

Saturday will be a day similar to today with rather a lot of cloud cover, but a few thin spots to allow some filtered sunshine to poke through. It will not be as mild as today, though, with highs in the mid 40s.

The next weather maker will roll in on Sunday and Monday with scattered showers. Confidence remains very low in the evolution of the weather beyond Monday, though the most likely scenario at this point is for minor impacts from the weather.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 17 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.