Soggy Monday leads to flurries tonight, Tuesday

finger lakes weather forecast monday march 7 2022 rain minor flooding flurries lake effect
Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary today with plenty of rain, leading to areas of minor poor drainage flooding. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Early Week Weather

A frontal boundary dropped south through the region last night, pushing the warm air south of the area.

The front has stalled out over Pennsylvania while an area of low pressure is tracking along the front through the Ohio River Valley.

Out ahead of the low, precipitation is spreading into the Finger Lakes this morning. Temperatures are mostly in the mid 30s, so the vast majority of what falls will be rain. A few icy pockets cannot be ruled out through the mid-morning if any localized cold areas are sitting just below freezing.

Rain will be steady this morning and will continue into the afternoon. There may be a few breaks here and there during the midday and early afternoon. The rain should be steady and widespread again for the latter half of the afternoon.

Rainfall amounts will range from a half to one inch, but some locally higher amounts are also likely. Poor drainage areas will have minor flooding, and area streams and rivers will rise significantly. Only minor flood plain flooding is expected, though, and no flood watches have been issued.

The low pressure center will track directly overhead this afternoon. Warm air will make another push northward, but will not make it all the way through the region.

Areas along and north of the Thruway are unlikely to escape the 40s. South of the Thruway, at least a brief period of low and mid 50s are likely. The further south, the longer this warm air will last.

As the low passes by late today, winds will turn to the northwest and increase with gusts over 30 mph possible tonight. Temperatures will quickly fall back into the 30s. A few flurries will be possible this evening.

Overnight, lake effect snow showers will develop as temperatures fall into the 20s. The snow may become more organized tomorrow morning with a band primarily across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties. Locally an inch or two may fall, with little to no accumulation elsewhere.

By Tuesday afternoon, the lake effect should dissipate, and some sun will mix in with the clouds. Temperatures will range through the 30s, but most areas should be above 35 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday march 7 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Late Week Weather

Skies will clear Tuesday evening, only to see new clouds move in overnight and into Wednesday. Low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic may be just close enough to clip our region with some late rain and snow showers. The further southeast, the better the chance for some light precipitation.

Temperatures on Wednesday will partially depend on that low and its precipitation. Where clouds are thicker and precipitation attempts to fall, highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40. Further north, mid 40s are more likely.

Skies will turn sunny for Thursday with just a few thin clouds on Friday. A southerly flow will return, leading to more warm temperatures.

Highs on Thursday will approach 50 degrees for many areas. Higher elevations will stick to the mid 40s. Friday will see widespread 50s, with the Thruway region possibly pushing towards 60 degrees.

The next weather system will move in for the weekend.

Temperatures will remain warm through Friday night, but a sharp cold front will move through early Saturday. Following the front, temperatures will make a quick drop into the 30s before ending up in the 20s Saturday afternoon.

Rain will turn to snow and there is a chance for some minor accumulations. It will also turn windy again, with northwest winds gusting over 30 mph.

Lake effect snow showers will be likely Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s.

Temperatures will bounce right back with near to above average temperatures expected to continue next week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday march 7 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.