Weather Through Saturday
A large area of high pressure far to the north over eastern Canada will have an influence on our weather for much of the next week.
For today, the high will deliver some sunshine with a lack of other nearby weather systems. However, low pressure moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley will spread some thin clouds our way, especially this afternoon.
There are still some areas of fog this morning in the favored valley locations and along Cayuga Lake. The fog will gradually burn off through the mid-morning hours, leaving sun and a few thin clouds. The thin clouds will increase this afternoon but should still allow a good deal of sunshine through.
Light north winds will blow today, influenced primarily by the high pressure system. Wind speeds will be near or just above 5 mph with gusts under 20 mph.
The winds will keep temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the low 60s. A few mid 60s are possible, mainly in the Southern Tier from Elmira eastward.
Clouds will continue to thicken overnight, holding temperatures in the mid 40s.
Rain associated with the weather system to our southwest will attempt to push into the area as early as tomorrow morning. The high pressure will hold its ground, setting up a battle between rain and dry air over our region.
The rain looks as though it will make its further northward progression Friday afternoon, possibly making it as far north as Route 20 or the Thruway. The rain should at least make it to about Penn Yan and Cortland. South of there, Friday will likely be a bit of a washout with persistent light rain.
Friday evening, the rain may retreat south and dissipate over our region. How much it is able to return on Saturday is questionable, but the models have been trending away from the rain. At least some showers should make it into the Southern Tier counties. Rain making it further north is not out of the question, though.
The position of the rain will continue to be a major forecast challenge and exact locations will probably not be known ahead of time with any great degree of certainty. As a general rule, the further south, the better the chances for rain while areas north of the Thruway may stay completely or at least mostly dry.
Temperatures will also be highly influenced by the rain. Temperatures on Friday will range from the mid 60s in the north to the mid 50s in the Southern Tier. Saturday may have some portions of the western Southern Tier stuck in the 40s with 50s for much of the remainder of the region. The Syracuse area could hit 60 degrees, though.
Quiet and Warmer Weather
By Sunday, the center of high pressure will be just north of Maine while the low tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The high will fill the void behind the low, expanding westward into our area.
This will bring mostly sunny skies on Sunday, though a few thin clouds will be possible here and there.
East-northeast winds will blow at 5-10 mph, preventing temperatures from getting too warm. Most areas should get into the low 60s, though a few higher elevations will fall just shy of 60 degrees.
The position of the high will change little into Monday, but the high pressure system as a whole will become stronger. Winds will still be from the east with speeds increasing closer to 10 mph.
With another day of full sunshine, temperatures should make it into the mid and upper 60s. Dewpoints will only be in the 30s, resulting in relative humidity values around 30 percent during the afternoon. With wind gusts around 20 mph, the dry air will lead to some brush fire danger, though new plant life is greening up and our brush fire season is winding down.
Tuesday will have basically the same pattern with the same results: east winds around 10 mph, highs in the mid and upper 60s, and relative humidity values around 30 percent. There may be a few afternoon clouds to mix with the sunshine, but they will be limited.
The weather gets a little more interesting later in the week. The original high will finally dissipate, only to be replaced by a quick-moving high that will take a similar track across eastern Canada, then turning south near Maine.
While winds will primarily remain from the east, moisture levels will increase with dewpoints pushing into the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs, meanwhile, will be into the low 70s Wednesday and mid or upper 70s Thursday.
This could lead to a few stray afternoon showers. Most areas will probably stay dry, but it is not as certain as Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase further next weekend as temperatures remain near or above 75 degrees and dewpoints creep into the 60s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Any idea of when tomorrow’s rain is likeliest to hit the Southern Cayuga county area tomorrow if we get some? I’m hoping to put a row of sugar snap pea seeds in the ground at some point during the day tomorrow 🙂
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
The morning looks a bit more favorable for rain than the afternoon…but showers will be possible at any time. Most of the steady rain may stay just south of you, but it will probably rain a little here or there at some point.