Summery weather through the 4th of July Weekend

finger lakes weather forecast thursday june 30 2022 sun clouds mild
A classic summertime pattern will hold through the holiday weekend with warm temperatures and a few chances for showers and storms. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Thursday-Friday Weather

An area of high pressure is overhead this morning but will slide to the southeast today.

Beneath the high, skies are clear across the Finger Lakes, with temperatures ranging through the 50s early this morning. Meanwhile, a complex of rain and some thunder over northern Michigan and the Upper Great Lakes is tracking eastward.

While any precipitation from this complex will stay well north of the region, a period of cloudiness will move through this morning, especially across the northern half of the area. Some sun may still filter through the clouds at times.

The clouds will be around for a couple hours, then move on, bringing nearly full sunshine back to the area. Winds will be at or under 5 mph, with a generally west or southwesterly flow.

Temperatures today will reach the upper 80s in the northwestern quadrant of the region, including Rochester, Geneva, Penn Yan, and Dansville. Most other areas will be in the mid 80s, with low 80s near the shore of Lake Ontario and through the higher elevations of the region. A few places in northern Cortland County may not quite make it to 80 degrees.

Thin clouds will move back in tonight as south winds increase to 5-10 mph. This will keep overnight temperatures in the mid 60s for most, but the upper 60s near and north of I-90.

The thin clouds will stick around for Friday morning and should gradually increase. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase, too, with speeds slightly over 10 mph and gusts just shy of 30 mph.

Temperatures will push into the upper 80s and low 90s, while dewpoints will eventually work their way through the 50s and into the low 60s. How quickly this occurs will influence the late-day weather. If enough humidity works in, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon and early evening.

Rain and thunderstorms will increase later in the evening and especially overnight Friday night. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible, but there will probably be pockets that miss out on the heaviest rain once again.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday june 30 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Through the Weekend

Saturday morning, some lingering showers will be possible across the region. These will especially be possible across the southern and eastern halves of the area.

Eventually, though, sunshine will increase, and the afternoon should turn pleasant. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages, topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be from the northwest, but lightly, with speeds around 5 mph.

Mostly clear skies Saturday night will allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s by Sunday morning. Sunshine will be abundant early Sunday.

However, clouds will build in through the day, gradually becoming thicker. Winds will turn back to the southwest but will remain light.

The southwest winds will give temperatures a small nudge upward, despite the increasing clouds. Many areas will be around 85 degrees while higher elevations will stick to the low 80s.

A few scattered showers will be possible Sunday night and into Monday. This rain does not look overly widespread, so many areas may not see any during this time. The best chance for rain looks to be Sunday night, with a secondary chance Monday afternoon in the daytime heating with highs in the low 80s.

The middle of next week will most likely be quiet and mild. Tuesday and Wednesday are both expected to be dry, with highs around 80 on Tuesday and into the mid 80s on Wednesday. There are hints on the models of thunderstorm complexes developing elsewhere that could eventually move into the region, so it is too early to completely discount the possibility of some rain.

Some showers may develop overhead as a weather system moves through late next week. There will be additional chances for rain next weekend and especially the following week. Temperatures should remain near average.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday june 30 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.