An area of high pressure will park itself over the region for the next few days.
Beneath this high, winds will be light and variable through the weekend. An overall gentle southerly flow will set up, but with wind speeds near or under 5 mph, it will be susceptible to localized influences.
The largest of these influences will be a lake breeze off Lake Ontario. Caused by the differentiation in temperatures over the land compared to over the expansive water of the lake, the lake breeze will cause winds to turn northerly during the afternoons across the northern half of the region.
The wind from the lake breeze will be light and should only cool temperatures a couple of degrees for areas close to the lake shore.
Further south, attention will be given to a more active storm track across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. As one or more disturbances track through this region, some occasional clouds may make their way into our area, especially for the southern half of the Finger Lakes.
Most of these clouds will be thin, but they may filter the sunshine at times. Rain is not generally expected, but a stray pop-up shower or small thunderstorm cannot be 100 percent ruled out. The chances for rain remain very low and will center on Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon.
Outside of the thin clouds and low chance for a stray shower, skies will be a pleasant mix of sunshine and fair weather clouds Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Temperatures will be on the rise. Temperatures today will mostly be near or just above 80 degrees. Thin clouds have shaved a couple of degrees off the forecast for Saturday, but mid and upper 80s are still likely.
Sunday will have the best shot at reaching 90 degrees, though again, the cloud cover will need to be monitored. Dewpoints during the afternoons will remain mostly in the 40s on Friday and 50s through the weekend.
Hoping for Rain
Low pressure is expected to track northeast from the Ohio Valley into our general vicinity on Monday. There is decent agreement on the models that this should result in rain for the Finger Lakes.
Rain and thunder are expected to arrive during the morning hours and continue through the afternoon. A prolonged rain event is exactly what our region needs with the dry conditions.
There is still a chance that the rain misses or only delivers a glancing blow. But, as of now, that chance seems to be dwindling.
Assuming it is a rainy day, temperatures will be held in the 70s. The less rain there is, the warmer the temperatures will get.
Tuesday should clear out with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will immediately bounce back to near 90 degrees. Wednesday should match or exceed that.
Later Wednesday and Thursday will bring more chances for rain and thunderstorms. The models have been impressively consistent showing a decaying thunderstorm complex impacting the area Wednesday evening. This will continue to be something to monitor, both in terms of beneficial rain and severe weather risks.
Thursday could have a similar risk-benefit analysis, but the models have been less consistent in bringing thunderstorms into our region.
In addition to the hot daytime temperatures next week, overnight lows will frequently be in the vicinity of 70 degrees.
Hot weather is likely to persist through next weekend but may take a step or two back next week. Rain chances that far out are too uncertain to tell much, though there seems to be a higher chance for rain early in the week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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