Cold front today sets up cool weekend weather

finger lakes weather forecast thursday august 11 2022 sun clouds cold front showers weekend
Highs will be close to or just shy of average in the mid and upper 70s this weekend behind a mostly dry cold front today. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Little Rainfall

A cold front will drop southeast through the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours today.

This front is showing up on the satellite imagery as a small band of cloudiness. There is, as of 8 AM, no precipitation showing on radar along the front.

A few showers may pop up during the midday and early afternoon hours as the front moves through. These will be most likely across the eastern half of the region. A few additional spits of rain behind the front will also be possible, especially south of Lake Ontario. These should dry up by the late afternoon.

The majority of places throughout the Finger Lakes will see little to no rain, though. The few places that do see a shower will only see a brief period of mainly light rain. Rainfall amounts will be minimal.

As the front passes, skies will become cloudier for a couple hours. Otherwise, sunshine will be plentiful early and late in the day.

Temperatures will rise to a high in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Northwest winds will pick up behind the front and may go over 10 mph for a couple hours this afternoon. Top gusts will come in just under 30 mph.

Tonight will be mostly clear, though there may be a few lingering clouds early on. Most areas will slip into the 50s, with a few pockets of low 50s across the Southern Tier and Cortland County. Areas near Lake Ontario and the immediate lake shores of the larger Finger Lakes will stay just above 60.

Friday will be sunny and dry with just a smattering of puffy fair weather clouds during the daytime heating hours. Winds will be out of the due north at around 10 mph, holding temperatures to the low and mid 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Dry Weekend, Possibly Unsettled Next Week

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes on Saturday and gradually dissipate over the area on Sunday. This will bring a couple more quiet, relatively cooler days.

Saturday will be the cooler of the two days with north winds persisting across the area. Skies will have plenty of sunshine, but temperatures will only manage the mid 70s again.

As the high dissipates Sunday, the north wind will break down. Sunday’s winds will instead be light and variable, which should add a couple degrees onto the high. Most places should get above 75 degrees and into the upper 70s. This is actually right about what the average highs are for this time of the year.

The atmosphere will be very dry through the weekend with dewpoints in the 40s. Afternoon relative humidity values will thus drop to under 40%. While the temperatures will be near average, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere will only be about 30% of average.

Next week, a persistent area of disturbed weather is expected over the Northeastern United States. This may include several low pressure systems that move along the coast and into New England.

These types of set-ups are reliant on small ripples of atmospheric energy that the models frequently have a difficult time resolving. As such, the day-to-day forecast is rather uncertain.

It does continue to look as though Monday will be dry, albeit possibly cloudy. Rain chances will increase towards the middle of next week, and some models hint at some possibly significant, beneficial rain. However, that is far from a guarantee, and at this point, all we can do is hope.

Regardless, temperatures should remain cool, with or without rain. Highs in the 70s are likely, but if we get a rainy day, I could see temperatures sticking in the 60s for a day. Stay tuned!

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.