Dry through the weekend, then potentially unsettled next week

finger lakes weather forecast friday august 12 2022 sunny high pressure
Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs mostly between 75-80 degrees for the foreseeable future. [Photo by Todd Wyjod]

Early Weekend Weather

An area of high pressure currently over the western Great Lakes will crawl eastward and dissipate this weekend, keeping our weather dry and seasonable.

Skies are clear across the area this morning and will more or less remain as such throughout the day today. A few small fair weather clouds may bubble up in the daytime heating hours, and a few thin wisps of cirrus may also be possible.

With the high to the west, our winds today will be straight out of the north. Wind speeds will increase through the morning, topping out around 10 mph with gusts around or just over 25 mph. The wind will persist through the afternoon before diminishing late in the day.

The sunshine and north winds will balance each other, leading to highs in the mid 70s this afternoon. Higher elevations in Cortland County and the western Southern Tier will stick to the low 70s. This is just a couple degrees off the daily average highs.

Tonight will be clear with a bright full moon. Temperatures will range through the 50s with a few isolated pockets of upper 40s.

Saturday will be similar to today, with just a couple of subtle differences. The north wind will remain in place, but with lighter speeds closer to 5 mph. During the afternoon, thin cirrus clouds will become more common.

High temperatures on Saturday will be a couple degrees higher, pretty much sitting right on the daily averages. Higher elevations will be around 75 degrees, while most of the area straddles the line between mid and upper 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 12 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Pattern Changes

Sunday will also be a dry day, but more noticeable changes will begin to take place as the high pressure system dissipates overhead.

Winds will be light and variable without a weather system to influence them. However, clouds will gradually increase, and it should not be as sunny during the afternoon hours as Friday or Saturday.

Nonetheless, temperatures will continue to inch upward with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Nighttime temperatures will remain warmer as well with lows in the low 60s as clouds continue to increase.

An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will get cut off from the jet stream and will sit over the Northeastern United States for much of next week. Waves of atmospheric energy will rotate around the low, bringing chances for rain to our area.

However, as I explained yesterday, these will be subtle features that the models historically have a difficult time resolving, especially this far out. As such, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details of next week’s weather.

I have added a chance for showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon. At this time, most areas still look to stay dry, though.

Tuesday continues to look like a better chance for showers with a few models hinting at some heavier rain amounts. Nothing to count on at this point, but a trend to continue monitoring through the weekend.

Showers look more scattered Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but uncertainty is way too high to be certain about that.

All through the week, temperatures should default to highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Unsurprisingly, a rainy day would lead to cooler temperatures, while a sunny, rain-free day could see widespread low 80s.

While this system should pack up and depart by the weekend, an overall unsettled pattern looks to continue the following week, which should also keep temperatures from getting too warm.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 12 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.