A few more showers, storms today followed by a dry day Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday august 18 2022 showers storms high pressure warm
Rain will be less common today than the last few days, and Friday should be a generally dry day before more wet weather. [Photo by Alyssa Johnson]

Rainy Pattern Pauses

Low pressure over Maine will drift north today as high pressure from the central Plains noses into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

With neither system a dominating force here in the Finger Lakes, the weather will be neither completely dry, nor as active as the last few days.

Skies are mixed across the region this morning with some sunshine and fog across the Southern Tier but plentiful cloud cover for most other areas. The clouds will generally win out today, though additional breaks of sun are possible, especially in the areas already seeing sun this morning.

Afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are likely again today, but should not be as widespread as the last couple of days. Still, a few clusters may develop and move south-southeast through the area, especially between 2-6 PM.

The individual storm cells should be more progressive than the last few days as well, meaning the chances for prolonged heavy rain will be less. Maximum rain totals will likely stay well under an inch and many areas will not see any rain whatsoever.

Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s with a few low 80s in the Rochester area. Dewpoints will mostly stick to the 50s.

As high pressure continues to push in, skies will gradually clear tonight. Temperatures will fall mostly in the 50s, though a few near lake locations will probably stay near or above 60 degrees.

Friday will have lots of sunshine and daytime heating fair weather clouds. While a shower cannot be completely ruled out, any rain will be very isolated and brief. Winds will continue to be light, but the sunshine will help temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 18 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Kicks Off Another Wet Phase

Heat and humidity will increase on Saturday as high pressure moves off the coast and over the Atlantic and a low pressure system drops into the Midwest, setting up a southerly flow overhead. Wind speeds will still be on the low side, coming in around 5 mph with top gusts around 15 mph.

With plenty of sunshine through the first two-thirds of the day, the daytime heating will be efficient, with highs well into the mid and upper 80s. A few places could hit 90, particularly along the I-90 corridor and between Binghamton and Elmira.

Later in the afternoon, dewpoints will push towards the low 60s and some isolated showers and storms will pop up. Again, many areas will probably not see rain, but some locally heavy downpours will be possible. These storms may again be slow-moving, leading to some pockets of high rain amounts.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday at any time, though the afternoon will be the most favored time. A few areas will still manage to stay dry, though. With the rain will come a good deal of cloud cover, keeping highs in the low 80s.

The chances for rain and thunder will increase further for Monday and Tuesday. Both of these days could end up with widespread showers and storms, though isolated pockets may still miss out on much of the rain.

If thunderstorms remain slow moving throughout the period, at some point, flash flooding will start to become a concern. Pockets of the Finger Lakes region have seen several inches of rain this week, and there will be a concern if those same areas see several more next week.

Going straight from drought to flooding is far from unprecedented in our region, so just because it has been dry does not mean that it could not happen. This will be something I will continue to monitor closely, but obviously remains a highly uncertain speculation at this point.

Regardless, the drought picture will probably look a lot different by this time next week, though that is not to say that the drought will be completely over.

The weather looks to remain unsettled late next week and beyond, though the chances for heavy rain day after day look less. Temperatures will likely remain mild, but not excessively hot, in the 75 to 85 degree range for the remainder of August.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 18 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.