Sunny start to Labor Day Weekend but rain moves in for its end

High Pressure Dominates

High pressure is overhead this morning, bringing clear skies and cool morning temperatures.

The center of the high is actually just to our east, meaning south winds will pick up this morning as the sun rises higher in the sky. The south winds will combine with sun-filled skies and dry air to push temperatures upward in a hurry.

By this afternoon, highs will be 25-35 degrees warmer than the morning lows, reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. Few, if any, clouds are expected until some thin clouds build in late in the afternoon. No rain will fall. Wind speeds will be around 5 mph.

Thin clouds and an increasing south wind will keep temperatures warmer tonight. Low and mid 60s will be possible for many areas, though typically cooler parts of the southern half of the region will slip into the upper or even mid 50s.

Wind speeds overnight will increase to near 10 mph, especially over higher elevations.

The thin clouds will remain in place for Saturday morning before eventually moving east. The afternoon will be a mix of sun and fair-weather clouds. Winds will turn more southwesterly with speeds above 5 mph, but mostly below 10 mph.

Afternoon highs will range through the 80s with most areas a couple of degrees on either side of 85 degrees. Areas between Rochester and Geneva have the best shot at some pockets of upper 80s while the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier and Cortland County will stick to the low 80s.

Uncertain Rain Chances

Rain showers and thunderstorms may pop up over the area Saturday night, after midnight, as the weather pattern begins to transform.

Scattered showers and storms are likely on Sunday as well. The southern half of the region continues to look more favorable for rain than areas further north, but the timing and position of a frontal boundary remains a key uncertainty. There is little doubt that at least portions of the region will see rain, though.

Forecast confidence quickly erodes as we go into early next week. There is little consistency among the different models, and from one run of a given model to its next. Therefore, the details of the weather remain uncertain.

The chances for rain do seem to be increasing for Monday as the frontal boundary stalls out nearby. Low pressure may then develop along the front and meander through the region, keeping at least a chance for showers in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is also a growing possibility for a period of prolonged steady, heavy rain. On the high end of projections, this could be a drought-busting multi-day rain event. But, on the flip side, rain amounts could be unimpressive if just stray showers dot the region.

I will continue to monitor this situation closely, especially for the holiday on Monday, and will have more information this weekend. Stay tuned.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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