Stuck Weather Pattern
The weather pattern over the northeastern United States is stuck with high pressure stretched across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada, the remains of Ian just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and no jet stream winds to cause anything to move.
In fact, the remains of Ian will spiral back westward for a time before heading east, further out to sea. Our region remains on the very edge of the cloud shield associated with this low pressure, so any westward movement will only increase our cloudiness.
This fact can be seen in the temperatures this morning. Across the western half of the region, where clouds have not yet arrived, morning lows are in the low and mid 30s. Meanwhile, the southeastern Finger Lakes have already seen clouds arrive and are starting the day in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
A general increase and thickening of the clouds is expected today as the cloud shield heads westward. This will result in today ending up a lot like the last several days. Skies will become overcast and gray, but some occasional thinning of the clouds may allow for some breaks of sunshine.
With the low to our southeast and the high to our west and northwest, our winds will be nearly due north today with speeds between 5-10 mph. The wind and clouds will ensure another cool day with highs in the mid and upper 50s.
Cloud cover will be a question tonight as well. Any areas that thin or clear out could see mid 30s and patchy frost. Areas that stay cloudy will remain in the upper 30s and low 40s. The National Weather Service, as of this morning, has stated that they will not be issuing frost advisories tonight… but if you have especially sensitive or important plants, you may want to take precautions, anyway.
Tuesday will probably end up mostly cloudy as well, though some models hint at a less solid cloud shield. This could lead to an increase in the breaks of at least partial sunlight. On the flip side, some rain showers may make their way into the southeastern Finger Lakes, and especially Tioga and Chemung Counties.
Winds will remain from the north at similar wind speeds. However, temperatures may add a few degrees with low 60s expected for the afternoon, especially if sunshine does poke through the clouds.
Back to Normal
By Wednesday, the remains of Ian will be heading back out to sea and the weather pattern will become more typical.
Clouds should linger for much of Tuesday night, holding temperatures in the 40s. Sunshine will then increase Wednesday morning and much of the day should be sun-filled.
Even with a light north wind remaining in place, highs should jump into the upper 60s. Thursday looks even warmer, with many places breaking into the low 70s.
Scattered clouds will develop on Thursday well ahead of an approaching cold front. During the afternoon, skies may become mostly cloudy for a time, but no rain is expected as of now.
Rain showers will become possible Thursday night and throughout Friday as the cold front moves through. However, the front looks as though it will be lacking in moisture to work with, so rain amounts look light and the coverage of the rain may end up quite spotty.
Temperatures will likely fall on Friday from morning highs in the upper 50s. Temperatures should reach the 30s Friday night, but some lake effect clouds and showers southeast of Lake Ontario may hold temperatures up a bit in those areas.
Skies should clear later in the day Saturday, but highs will struggle into the low 50s. A cold and potentially frosty night is possible Saturday night, followed by ample sunshine and highs in the upper 50s on Sunday.
The first half of next week looks quiet with steadily rising temperatures. By the late week period, highs could be pushing towards 70 again. Another storm system is expected late in the week with a better chance for substantial rain, followed once again by cold air.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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