Early Week Weather
A small area of low pressure is passing nearby this morning as it moves along a weak frontal boundary overhead.
A few areas of light rain showers are accompanying the low. While the main batch of rain is already moving out of the area early this morning, a few scattered showers will remain possible until about the midday hours.
This afternoon, the front will dissipate as high pressure to our south strengthens and expands. Dry conditions are expected for the afternoon with a gradual increase in sunshine. By sunset, or shortly thereafter, skies should become mostly clear.
Winds behind the low will turn to the northwest later this morning with speeds near or just over 5 mph.
With cloudy skies through midday and the northwest wind in place, temperatures will remain in check. Highs will be in the mid and upper 50s, just a touch below the daily average which is near or just above 60 degrees.
Temperatures will quickly fall into the 40s this evening with clear skies and calm winds. By midnight, however, a southwest wind will develop as high pressure continues to strengthen along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
A few areas may still slip into the upper 30s tonight, but most areas should remain steady between 40-45 degrees. A few areas of fog will be possible in the usual valley locations.
Tuesday will rival some of the weather we had last week with lots of sunshine and warming temperatures.
The southwest winds will blow steadily, but not too briskly, with speeds of 5-10 mph. Sunshine will be abundant with just a smattering of small, afternoon fair weather clouds. Highs will push towards 70 degrees for many areas.
Winds will turn to the south and increase slightly Tuesday night while an area of cloudiness moves in. That should keep overnight temperatures in the vicinity of 50 degrees.
Strong Weather System Thursday
Wednesday will be another mild day. Some extra cloud cover may keep it a degree or two shy of Tuesday’s high temperatures, though. A few afternoon rain showers cannot be ruled out, either.
The south wind will be breezy during the daytime hours with speeds around 10 mph. After sunset, the wind will increase further, with speeds around 15 mph and gusts around 30 mph. As is often the case with nighttime south winds, the higher elevations, especially near Syracuse and the Bristol Hills, will have the strongest winds.
It will be another warm night with overnight lows only in the mid 50s. Rain showers will be possible through the evening and first part of the overnight. Towards dawn, a larger area of rain should move in from the west.
This rain will overspread the Finger Lakes Thursday morning, though it may lose some of its steam as it moves in. Anything it loses in the morning will intensify for the afternoon. Areas of heavy rain are likely to develop, including the possibility of some thunder and lightning. The second half of the afternoon and early evening may well be a washout, especially for the eastern half of the region.
Winds will remain blustery as well, helping temperatures into the 60s despite the rain. Late in the day, as the heavy rain passes by, winds will drop and turn westerly. Cooler, dry air will wrap around the strong low to our northwest, entering into the Finger Lakes from the southwest.
Blustery southwest winds will develop on Friday, but these will be cool winds. Lake effect precipitation should stay well west and north of the region, leaving a mix of sun and clouds for the Finger Lakes. Highs will drop back to the mid 50s.
Saturday looks like a typical mid-October day with morning lows starting in the upper 30s and afternoon highs around 60 degrees. Precipitation is not expected, and skies should be a mix of sun and clouds.
The next system will roll in on Sunday into Monday with scattered showers. While this system will not be nearly as potent as Thursday’s in terms of wind and rain, it will bring in much colder air than Thursday’s.
By early next week, highs should be well short of 50 degrees. Lake effect precipitation will be likely, and some of that could have snowflakes mixing in with the rain. Any areas that do not see lake effect clouds and precipitation at night may see a hard, killing freeze.
The cold air will only last a few days, and by the end of next week, high temperatures could be near or above average once again.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.