After cool, breezy Thursday, sunshine and warmth are on the way

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 20 2022 cloudy breezy cool warm up coming
Temperatures will be about fifteen degrees warmer tomorrow than today, and another ten degrees warmer than that on Saturday. [Photo by Nanci McCraine]

Transition Period

Low pressure developed to our northwest on Monday and has stayed put all week thus far.

However, the low has finally started to move and is drifting northward into Canada. By tomorrow, the low will dissipate and no longer have an influence on our weather.

For today, though, the low will deliver one more day of cool, breezy, cloudy conditions.

Clouds will be plentiful throughout the daytime hours and into the first part of the evening. However, precipitation will be hard to come by. Winds are unfavorable for lake effect across the Finger Lakes. A few stray showers may pop up around or just after sunset, but the models have backed off on this possibility. Most areas should be dry today and tonight.

Southwest winds will blow at speeds near or just over 10 mph with gusts around 30 mph. The wind speed will drop in the late afternoon with just light winds during the overnight.

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The clouds and winds will ensure temperatures remain chilly today. Most areas will not get out of the mid 40s, and a few higher elevations may stick to the low 40s. Evening temperatures will be quick to drop into the 30s except for immediate lake shores and a few urban centers like Syracuse and Rochester.

Skies will clear overnight and temperatures will end up between 30-35 degrees. Pockets of upper 20s seem likely across the Southern Tier and Central New York. The wind may prevent widespread frost formation, but pockets of frost are likely.

On Friday, skies will be bright and sunny throughout the day. South winds will blow with speeds up to 10 mph. Unlike the southwest winds this week, which were wrapping around the low and importing cold air from central Canada, these south winds will have their source over the southeastern United States.

Warmer air will move north on these winds as high pressure strengthens along the Eastern Seaboard. High temperatures on Friday should mostly be in the mid and upper 50s, but some of the typically warmer pockets across the northern Finger Lakes will probably hit 60 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 20 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warm Weekend and Beyond

Skies will be clear Friday night, but the south wind will remain steady with speeds up to 10 mph. This will keep temperatures from falling too far, though some upper 30s across the Southern Tier and Central New York will still be possible.

Most areas will start in the 40s, however, with mid and upper 40s across the northern half of the region. This will get temperatures off to a running start Saturday morning.

Saturday will again be sun-filled from start to finish. Gentle south winds under 10 mph will help support efficient warming. Widespread temperatures of 65-70 degrees are expected.

Some thin clouds will build in Saturday night. Temperatures will again range through the 40s with just a few pockets of upper 30s across the south.

Thin clouds will persist through Sunday, possibly allowing some sunshine to filter through. This will be most common in the morning and across the western half of the region. In the afternoon, clouds may thicken, especially across the eastern half.

Temperatures will not be quite as warm on Sunday but should still be well into the 60s.

The clouds will be associated with an area of low pressure moving along the Atlantic coast. This may throw a few showers our way Sunday night into Monday, but this is uncertain. Chances are probably higher that it will stay completely dry.

Temperatures should be in the upper half of the 60s on Monday, but just how warm will depend on whether there are rain showers or not. Tuesday should also be pushing towards 70 degrees, even as some afternoon showers from a separate system possibly move in.

The latter half of next week will continue to see temperatures above average, but there may be a slow downward trend back closer to 60 degrees. There is a large spread on the models, though, so uncertainty remains high.

There will also continue to be some chances for rain, especially as we head toward next weekend. Again, though, the models are showing a wide range of possibilities, so it is too early to speculate too much.

It does seem as though temperatures will at least be near average, if not slightly above, even as we head into early November.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.