Rainfall associated with the remains of Hurricane Nicole is lifting north through Pennsylvania and will push into the Finger Lakes region shortly.
As of 7:30 AM, the leading edge of the rain was entering the northernmost counties of Pennsylvania. Over the next few hours, the rain will spread from south to north across the entire Finger Lakes region.
Once it begins to rain, it should rain steadily for much of the daytime hours. As we get into the late afternoon, the rain will start to break up over the southeastern Finger Lakes and may even come to an end for a time this evening.
This lull is most likely from roughly Bath to Auburn to Syracuse and points eastward. Even in these areas, there will still be some scattered showers. Steadier rain will continue to the west of this line. In particular, heavy rain will likely continue just west of the lull in precipitation in a relatively narrow band.
The center of low pressure will move directly through the area this evening, and behind it, the rain will spread back east. The heavy rain band may intensify as it marches east, and a few claps of thunder cannot be ruled out.
By dawn, the rain should be east of the Finger Lakes. All areas should receive at least an inch of rain, and most should be well above that amount. The best chance for 2-inch rain amounts will be over the western and northern Finger Lakes, with lesser amounts in the areas that see a lull and also into western New York.
A narrow band of potential for 3+ inches exists, shaded in red on the rainfall map provided. Not all locations within the red zone will see 3+ inches, and localized areas outside of the red zone could also see 3-inches or more. This zone runs roughly from Wellsville to Penn Yan to Geneva to Oswego. Any slight shifts in the storm track will accordingly shift that zone west or east.
Flooding should be limited to poor-drainage areas and perhaps some minor small-stream flooding during the heaviest rainfall. Most areas should not see much, if any flooding problems. Be sure your storm drains are not leaf-clogged, though!
Wind will not be a major concern, with most places seeing only light winds with gusts under 30 mph. Some gusts over the eastern Finger Lakes may approach 30 mph during the lull, coming in from the south and southeast. The band of heavy rain overnight may also have some briefly gusty winds.
Temperatures will spend most of the day in the low 60s. For areas in the lull this evening, temperatures will likely rise toward the mid 60s. As the band of heavy rain marches east, it will act as a cold front, turning winds to the northwest and quickly dropping temperatures towards the low 50s.
Cold and Unsettled
Much of Saturday will be dry, albeit rather cloudy. Northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph with gusts around 25 mph.
Temperatures will not move much from the morning lows in the low 50s. Most areas will add a couple of degrees and hover in the mid 50s for much of the day.
Showers will spread northeast across the area late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. The rain will not be heavy, but most areas should see on and off showers persist well into the night. Temperatures will drop into the low and mid 40s during the evening, but should reach the mid 30s by dawn Sunday.
By then, the widespread showers will be transitioning to lake effect. Scattered rain showers and flurries will be possible throughout Sunday. Northwest winds will persist at around 10 mph with gusts near or just over 25 mph.
Most areas should get back into the low 40s Sunday afternoon, but not much higher than that. A few areas may manage to approach 45 degrees, while some higher elevations may not quite break 40 degrees.
Lake effect will consolidate into a band southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday night. This band should persist into Monday morning, mainly impacting the far northeastern corner of the Finger Lakes, including Syracuse. Snow accumulations should be limited to a slushy coating on grassy surfaces, to maybe an inch or so over higher terrain.
Temperatures on Monday will start ranging through the 20s with a few low 30s along the lake shores. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees. Most areas will be precipitation free as the lake effect drifts further north and out of the region. Clouds will remain plentiful, though.
Tuesday looks cloudy and cool. Morning temperatures will be even colder, spreading throughout the whole range of 20s. Afternoon highs will be around 40 degrees.
The next weather maker will move in Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The timing, strength, and temperatures of this system remain uncertain, but there could be some snow to talk about for the commute early Wednesday. Stay tuned.
Time is Running Out!
Only five days remain in the presale period for the 2023 FLX Weather Calendar & Almanac. You do not want to miss out on this unique, beautiful, functional, and educational experience! Day after day, month after month, this calendar, almanac, and weather journal will delight you.
Purchasing now, in the presale period, is important! Not only do you get the presale early bird discount and guarantee your copy, but the presales let me know how many copies to have the printer run. There will be extra, but they will be sold at first price and on a first-come, first-serve basis.
These calendars will also make a wonderful gift for family, friends, co-workers, teachers, bosses, and just about anyone who lives in and loves the Finger Lakes. Some people have already bought as many as 8 copies!
But again, time is getting very short. There will be no extensions on the presale period so that I can get the numbers to the printer and get these in your hands as quickly as possible.