NOTE: This blog was written Wednesday morning, but was unable to get posted until 1 PM due to technical difficulties.
The pair of low pressure systems that brought our first taste of wintry weather are departing the region this morning
Most of the precipitation, which ended primarily as rain, has already lifted north of the region this morning. A few stray showers linger, and this will continue to be the case through the morning hours.
It will remain cloudy, and possibly a bit foggy in spots, throughout the day. Temperatures will climb into the low and mostly mid 40s this afternoon on west-southwest winds. Wind speeds will be near or just over 10 mph with gusts getting close, but not quite all the way to 30 mph.
Late in the afternoon, colder air will start to move in. Temperatures will drop quickly as the influx of cooler air coincides with the setting sun.
Snow showers off Lake Erie will spread east into the Finger Lakes. A few briefly heavier bursts will be possible in small, localized areas. This will especially be possible from about Penn Yan due westward, including the Dansville area.
Scattered snow showers will continue overnight and into Thursday. Most areas should see little to no accumulation, but parts of Wyoming and perhaps Allegany counties will see accumulations of several inches. Extreme northern Cayuga County and the very northeastern corner of Wayne County could see small accumulations as well on the edge of the Lake Ontario band.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the 25-30 degree range. High temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the upper 30s. West-northwest winds will blow with speeds to 15 mph and gusts to 35 mph.
Winds will turn southwesterly Thursday night into Friday. These will be cold southwest winds, with mid 20s Thursday night and highs in the mid 30s Friday.
A powerful band of lake effect will develop off Lake Erie. As the band wobbles around, some occasional snow showers will be thrown into the Finger Lakes with little to no accumulation. Extreme snowfall rates will impact I-90 near and south of Buffalo, though.
Weekend Weather and Beyond
Southwest winds will persist Friday night into Saturday, keeping the lake effect locked in on the Buffalo area. Skies across the Finger Lakes, meanwhile, should be a mixed. Saturday will have sun darting in and out of clouds with nothing more than a stray flurry here or there.
Temperatures will be cold Saturday morning with lows in the upper 10s and low 20s. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s.
Sunday will not be much different as far as temperatures go. Morning lows will start out around 20 degrees. There will be less sunshine on Sunday, keeping highs in the low 30s.
Lake effect will continue off Lake Erie on Sunday, but winds will become more westerly. This will spread snow showers back into the Finger Lakes. Accumulations should be minimal to non-existent. The wind will be strong, however, with speeds over 15 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph.
As we start next week, the chances for snow will decline and temperatures will start a slow moderation. Expect a mix of sun and clouds on Monday. After starting in the 10s, temperatures will make it into the mid 30s.
Tuesday will be warmer, with lows in the mid 20s and highs reaching the low 40s. No precipitation is expected at this time with skies a mix of sun and clouds.
Wednesday will add a couple more degrees onto the highs with low and mid 40s. It should remain dry with a mix of sun and clouds, even as winds shift to the north late in the day and overnight. This wind shift will bring in a briefly cooler airmass, with highs on Thursday back into the mid 30s.
By Friday, winds will be blustery out of the southeast in advance of the next weather system. Temperatures should reach the 40s on Friday.
The details of this next weather system are too far out to see clearly at this time, but it seems like some, if not all, of what falls should be rain.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.