Quiet through Thanksgiving, then a bit Unsettled

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday november 22 2022 sun and clouds
Temperatures will slowly rise and may be in the upper 40s by Thanksgiving Day. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, Groton]

Weather Through Thanksgiving

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region is extending north through New York state this morning.

A few clouds along a frontal boundary and coming off of Lake Ontario dot the region this morning. Skies should clear for a time this morning, but some additional clouds will be possible during the midday and afternoon hours. No precipitation is expected today.

Winds will be lighter than the last several days. Southwest winds will blow at around 5 mph during the daytime, increasing slightly after sunset.

Most areas will be between 40-45 degrees today. A few higher elevations and the deep snowpack of Wyoming and Genesee counties will yield some upper 30s. Evening temperatures will drop into the 30s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s in the Southern Tier to the low 30s near the lakes.

A stray shower or flurry cannot be ruled out tonight as a subtle boundary moves through. Most areas will not see any precipitation.

Winds will turn to the west and then northwest Wednesday morning, but speeds will only be around 5 mph. There should be quite a bit of sunshine with just a few passing clouds in the afternoon. Highs in the low and mid 40s are likely again, but more areas will be pushing toward 45 degrees than today.

By Wednesday night, winds will go calm, then pick up again from the south. Even with mostly clear skies overnight, temperatures will only fall to the 25-30 degree range with a few colder pockets in the Southern Tier.

Thanksgiving Day on Thursday looks pleasant. Sunshine will mix with some clouds, but conditions are trending sunnier. This in turn has the models trending warmer as well, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 22 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Weekend… But Not Exactly Stormy

The models have undergone a significant shift over the last 24 hours with regard to the weekend weather.

Oftentimes during the cold season, significant storm systems are the result of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream merging. This happens when the dips and ridges in the jet streams phase up together and collide.

This is not something that is easy for the atmosphere to do, and models often indicate phasing the medium to long term that never comes to fruition. As such, significant weather events get shone on the models, hyped up by the media, and then fizzle away as they approach.

That appears to be the case once again this weekend. Instead of one large storm system, the models are now trending toward two weaker systems.

Friday still looks rainy across the Finger Lakes as the first system swings through. However, instead of widespread, steady rain with over an inch falling, it now looks like on-and-off showers with light amounts.

As of now, the best chance for rain looks to be from about the mid-morning to the mid-afternoon, but this will probably need some further refinement. But the important thing is that it looks like a low-impact rain event, and nothing more.

Saturday now looks dry and quite sunny between systems. If this holds true, temperatures could push toward 50 degrees.

The second system is now expected to move in on Sunday. Again, this looks to be like a rain event. The rain may be a bit more widespread and heavy than on Friday, but the details are even less certain. As this system pulls away Monday, a few early flurries will be possible.

Temperatures will take a hit behind this second system, with highs returning to the 30s next week. Another weather system is expected for the middle to latter part of the week.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 22 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.