Next Weather System Rolls Through
High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will keep the weather quiet today.
However, a strengthening low will track from the northern Plains into eastern Canada will bring more wind and rain back into the area as early as this evening.
Winds have turned to the south between the high and low pressure systems and warmer air is starting to push into the region. That may seem counterintuitive since clear skies and light winds overnight have temperatures starting in the low half of the 20s, if not upper 10s.
The push of warmer air has brought in a few clouds and flurries for the western half of the region this morning. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds across the region throughout the day as the high retreats and the low tracks further east.
The sunshine there is, however, will help temperatures rise steadily this morning and into the afternoon. Highs should reach the low and mid 40s.
Wind speeds will stay near or under 10 mph during the daylight hours, but will increase further after the sun sets. By midnight, wind speeds will be near or over 15 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. The highest wind speeds will be over higher elevations. These winds will continue to be from the south.
A few spits of rain may also be moving in this evening, with a better chance for some showers during the overnight period. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s across the Southern Tier and Central New York, to the low 40s in the northwestern Finger Lakes. The temperature may rise a couple of degrees just before dawn.
Waves of showers will continue into Saturday morning, and there could even be some steadier rain for the southeastern quadrant of the region. During the midday and early afternoon hours, a narrow line of heavier showers and strong winds will develop along the cold front and push east through the region.
Winds with this line could gust to 50 mph, especially across the flatter terrain of the northern Finger Lakes. The rain will be brief but may come down hard. Winds will switch to the west behind this line and temperatures will quickly drop from the upper 40s and low 50s.
By the late afternoon, temperatures will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Some snow showers will be scattered about the region, but winds will gradually diminish. After sunset, gusts should be well under 30 mph. Only scattered flurries are expected, with little to no accumulation.
A Brief Break, then More Unsettled Weather
Quiet weather will return for Sunday as Saturday’s weather system quickly departs. A stray morning flurry cannot be ruled out, but most of the area will be completely dry.
Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, with sunshine especially likely during the second half of the day. Winds will start from the west but will shift to the southwest by the afternoon. Wind speeds will be around 5 mph with gusts under 20 mph.
It will still be a cool day in the wake of Saturday’s system, however. Afternoon highs should only make it into the mid and upper 30s with nighttime temperatures well into the 20s.
Monday will also be quiet but a bit warmer with highs in the low 40s. South winds will blow at 5-10 mph. Some sun is expected, but clouds will be more plentiful than on Sunday. A layer of thin overcast will be possible, which may still allow some filtered sunshine for the afternoon.
Unsettled weather will then return for the middle of the week. Rain and snow will move into the area late Monday night and early Tuesday. Most of what falls should be rain, but some sloppy roads will be possible during the predawn hours. This remains an uncertain situation, though.
Winds will pick up some Monday night but should not be as strong as Saturday or what we had earlier this week. The wind will diminish early Tuesday morning.
If the weather system early Tuesday moves out quick enough, some dry weather will be possible Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid 40s.
Additional showers will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, though the details of this rain are sketchy this far out. Highs should be in the 40s. However, there is a chance the entire pattern shifts south, keeping our region drier and cooler.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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