Widespread Light Snow and Lake Effect
A small weather disturbance will pass through the area today with some light snow.
The snow today will be widespread throughout the region but may be on and off at times. Snow will move in this morning and fall through the afternoon.
The snowfall rates will be very low, and the snow will have little impact on travel today. By this evening, most places will have up to an inch of new snow accumulation.
Winds will be light throughout the day, and at times will be nearly calm. Temperatures will be warmest in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier, where some mid 30s will be possible. Most of the region will be in the low 30s, with some upper 20s clinging to higher elevations.
The widespread snow will end early in the evening. It will quickly be replaced by scattered snow showers off Lake Ontario. A few brief squalls will be possible overnight, but the lake effect will remain disorganized. Locally, another inch may fall.
Temperatures will drop on northwest winds that will increase to near 10 mph. Most areas, except immediate lake shores, will drop into the mid and upper 10s by Tuesday morning. Lake shores may stay at or just above 20 degrees.
The lake snows will become a little better organized Tuesday morning. A few squalls will be possible along and north of the length of I-90, with lighter, less frequent snow showers to the south. A snow band may sit for a couple of hours over far northern Cayuga and Onondaga counties as well. The snow will dissipate during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Much of the region will see little to no snow accumulation on Tuesday, but the aforementioned lake effect areas may see localized amounts of several inches.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low and mid 20s, with a few higher elevations failing to get above 20 degrees.
Later Week Weather
Wednesday is looking to be a cool but sunnier day. High pressure will pass to our south, turning winds over the Great Lakes to the southwest. This should push the lake effect and its associated clouds to our north, leaving an increase in sunshine throughout the day.
Morning temperatures on Wednesday will vary based on terrain, snow cover, and cloud cover. Pockets of single digits are possible, and a few localized areas could even flirt with sub-zero temperatures. Areas less favorable for cold will settle into the mid 10s.
Afternoon highs on Wednesday will bounce back to the upper 20s, which is just slightly below the daily average high temperatures.
Thursday should likewise have some sun, but clouds will have more of a presence as well. This will especially be the case late in the day as an arctic cold front approaches. This front will move through Thursday night with a burst of snow and a quick shot of some cold air.
Friday will be a windy, cold, and snowy day behind the front. Temperatures will spend most of the day somewhere near, or possibly below, 10 degrees. Strong winds will create subzero wind chills and blowing snow as Lake Ontario sends a spray of snow showers across the area. Some places will likely see several inches of snow, though it will be hard to measure with the wind.
The lake effect should gradually wind down Friday night into early Saturday, in part because temperatures will get very cold and beyond ideal snowflake growth temperatures. Widespread subzero readings are expected Saturday morning, and it could end up colder than the mid single digits below zero I currently have in the forecast.
Saturday afternoon should see highs in the upper half of the 10s, but then the cold will vacate as quickly as it arrived. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures should be in the upper half of the 30s with no other big cold invasions expected at least into the middle of February.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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