Accumulating Snow Likely
While a sprawling high pressure system stretched across most of Canada will continue to have some influence on our weather today, a developing low pressure system will bring snow to the area Friday and Friday night.
With the high pressure centered over central Canada, it will be another day of north and northwest winds over the Finger Lakes. This will result in cool temperatures and ample lake effect cloud cover.
There have been a few breaks in the clouds this morning, and the occasional glimpse of sunshine will continue to be possible today. The late afternoon hours in particular have the best chance for some breaks of sun as winds over Lake Ontario turn more westerly and some dry air sneaks into the region.
Wind speeds will be near, but mostly under 10 mph. Top gusts will be around 20 mph. Temperatures will rise to an afternoon high in the low and mid 30s. Only a few higher elevations, mainly in the eastern Finger Lakes, may fail to get above 30 degrees.
Clouds will increase again this evening and thicken overnight as the low pressure system starts to take shape over the Ohio River Valley. Winds will go calm for a time, then turn to the east and southeast after midnight.
Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid 20s, but some colder pockets into the 10s will be possible for areas to the east of Cayuga Lake.
Friday will be cloudy from the start, with snow arriving from west to east during the afternoon hours, mostly between 1-4 PM. The snow will become steady, with moderate snowfall rates generally under an inch per hour. This will continue into the evening before snowfall rates drop after midnight.
Lingering snow showers will be possible Saturday morning before tapering off and ending by the midday hours.
Snow amounts will be highest over the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier and western New York, particularly in Wayne, Allegany, Steuben, and Yates counties. Totals by Saturday morning here will be 6-8 inches with some higher amounts.
Surrounding areas in the western Finger Lakes and southern Tier will see 3-6 inches, with around or under 3 inches for areas around and east of about Cayuga Lake. I will publish a snow map either later this afternoon or with tomorrow morning’s blog post.
Some sunshine will be possible later Saturday as low pressure pulls away from the area. Highs on Saturday will reach into the mid 30s.
Clear skies may linger into the evening and overnight hours, allowing temperatures to drop into the 10s and possibly single digits. Temperatures Saturday night will be variable based on terrain and snow depth.
Eyeing Early Next Week
Clouds will increase and thicken on Sunday and some late-day snow may even start to work its way into the area. Temperatures should get a boost with south winds with highs approaching 40 degrees.
The weather Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday next week remains highly complex and uncertain.
Low pressure will track across the Deep South of the United States on Sunday, then turn north along the east coast Monday. From there, the low has several potential paths, either coming inland over New England and stalling for a day, or staying closer to the coast, or even out to sea and remaining progressive.
The differences in impacts for the Finger Lakes are broad, but there are some aspects of the forecast that are becoming a bit more certain.
Snow is likely on Monday but will probably remain light. There is currently about a 70 percent of over an inch falling somewhere in the Finger Lakes, but the probabilities for higher-end snow amounts are low.
Tuesday will probably be the worst day for travel with strong winds and snow of some sort likely. Heavy snow remains a possibility if the low pressure tracks inland and stalls, especially for the eastern Finger Lakes.
Light to moderate snow is more likely Tuesday, either on the lesser edge of the coastal low, or from lake effect as winds wrap into the low, or both. Even a far eastern track of the low should bring at least some light snow accumulations from lake effect across the northern Finger Lakes.
By Wednesday, this low will be heading east-northeast away from the area. Linger snow, mostly lake effect, will be likely in the morning, but significant snow amounts are unlikely.
Be wary of hype, as this weather system is already gaining attention on social media. It is far too early to count on the myriad of puzzle pieces all fitting together to make for THE snow event of the year. This system does bear keeping a close eye on over the weekend, though. Stay tuned.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
