Windy, Wet Weather
A strong area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and into Canada over the next 36 hours, bringing plenty of active weather to the Finger Lakes.
An initial push of milder air well out ahead of this system is moving into the Finger Lakes this morning. A few flurries and rain showers are accompanying this push. Precipitation is sporadic, and many areas will see little to nothing this morning.
Rain chances will increase during the early afternoon with widespread rain showers likely into the early evening. It may not rain the entire time, but it frequently will be raining.
Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 40s by the midday hours but will retreat several degrees during the rainy afternoon. Mid 40s are likely through the evening hours.
After midnight, another area of rain will move in. This rain will have some embedded downpours and a few rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will rise with this precipitation, pushing into the low and mid 50s by Saturday morning.
Winds will also increase with this rain, with south winds of 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Only a few lingering showers are expected early Saturday, with dry and eventually sunny conditions taking over. Southwest winds will increase to around or over 15 mph with gusts over 40 mph at times.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 60s with dewpoints falling into the 40s or even 30s. With the strong winds, warm temperatures, and sunshine, this drier air could open up a window for some brush fire risk.
Of greater concern will be another dramatic frontal passage during the afternoon, most likely between 3-6 PM. This frontal passage should match or exceed the intensity of Wednesday evening’s squall, only with thunderstorms, not snow.
“Thunderstorm” is a term I am using a bit loosely, as I do not expect a large amount of lightning. However, a sudden onset of heavy rain and strong to severe winds is likely during the afternoon. Scattered wind damage is possible with localized gusts at or above 60 mph. This is a threat I have been mentioning since Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region at a Level 2—SLIGHT risk for damaging thunderstorm winds. I would expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued, along with several severe thunderstorm warnings.
As the line of thunderstorms moves in, temperatures will drop fifteen to twenty degrees in a matter of minutes, with a slower but continued drop in temperature thereafter. If enough precipitation develops behind the primary line, some snow could mix in over higher elevations during the early evening hours.
Snow showers off the Great Lakes will become common Saturday night with accumulations mostly under an inch.
Spring in the FLX
Sunday will be similar to Thursday’s weather in the wake of the front. Expect a good deal of sunshine, mixing with a few clouds from time to time.
It will be chilly and a touch breezy. After morning lows around or just above 20 degrees, look for highs ranging from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Northwest winds will be strongest in the morning, with a few gusts approaching 30 mph. Winds will diminish in the afternoon and become calm by evening.
South and southeast winds will develop Sunday night, pushing warmer air back into the area. Temperatures will fall to the 20s Sunday evening but will rise to the low and mid 30s by Monday morning.
High temperatures on Monday will return to the low 60s. A few scattered showers will be possible, mostly late in the day. Some breaks of sunshine are also expected. The southerly winds will be breezy, with gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be over higher elevations.
Tuesday remains a bit of a mystery day with a frontal boundary stalling out nearby. If the front is just south of the region, expect some rain showers and highs in the 50s. If the front lifts north, highs will be in the 60s at least with lower rain chances.
While the models remain mixed, the slightly cooler, wetter scenario is gaining some steam.
Another surge of warm air will move in Wednesday, pushing highs into the 70s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Thursday is looking windy and cooler, but still slightly warmer than average with highs well into the 50s.
Temperatures should return to the 40s late next week and remain in the upper half of the 40s or lower half of the 50s through the weekend and into the following week.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
