Low pressure over the Midwest will lift north into Canada today but will still have a direct impact on our weather.
First is a warm front lifting through the region this morning. This front is accompanied only by some clouds this morning. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out later this morning, mostly near the shore of Lake Ontario.
Most areas, instead, will see some breaks of sun through the clouds. South winds will increase to 10-15 mph, bringing in the warmer air. Top wind gusts will be between 30-40 mph, with the strongest gusts over the higher terrain.
There is a small bit of uncertainty in how warm it gets this afternoon, but many places should at least be near, if not over 70 degrees. The best chance for mid 70s will be between Rochester and Dansville, while the lowest chances of actually getting all the way to 70 degrees will be along and east of I-81.
During the early and mid afternoon hours, a band of rain and embedded thunder may try to push through the region. This should weaken as it moves east and may dissipate before exiting the Finger Lakes.
A second, more substantial area of rain and thunderstorms is expected during the late afternoon and early evening hours. This will be the one to watch for some severe thunderstorms, mainly west of Seneca Lake and especially west of I-390.
Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. There is also a small tornado threat, but that is mostly west of our area, closer to Buffalo.
For areas east of Seneca Lake, a strong thunderstorm wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, but the severe threat overall is minimal.
Behind this area of rain and thunder, only a few additional light rain showers are expected overnight. Winds will remain southerly until a cold front moves in during the dawn hours Thursday. Temperatures will remain near 60 degrees throughout the night.
The best chance for rain on Thursday will be across the southeastern Finger Lakes, including areas such as Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. There is uncertainty in the rain chances, though, and most of the precipitation may stay further south and east. The later in the day it gets, the lower the chances for rain.
Temperatures on Thursday will retreat to the low and mid 50s during the morning hours and remain there through the afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day.
Extended Dry Weather
Friday may start off with a little sun, but clouds will bubble up in the daytime heating as a cool air mass builds in overhead. It may become mostly cloudy for much of the day before skies clear late as the daytime heating wanes.
It will be cool, with highs only reaching the mid 40s. Blustery northwest winds will gust between 30-40 mph, but no precipitation is expected.
Skies will clear Friday night and winds will become nearly calm. Temperatures will slide back into the mid 20s for the start of Saturday.
The daytime hours Saturday will be mostly sunny but still on the cool side. Highs will again reach the mid 40s. Winds will remain out of the northwest but will be light.
Easter Sunday will dawn with clear skies and calm winds with temperatures once more in the mid 20s. Light to nearly calm winds will persist through the day, allowing the sunshine to warm temperatures into the low and mid 50s.
Warm air will steadily move in from there, with highs Monday in the mid 60s and Tuesday nearing 70 degrees. The second half of next week should be well into the 70s.
About the only chance for rain next week will be a few showers Monday night, but even those are looking doubtful.
The air will be dry with afternoon relative humidity values potentially under 35%. With lots of sunshine and warm temperatures, the brush fire risk will increase substantially. Thankfully, winds throughout the week look light, which will mitigate the risk slightly.
After next weekend, precipitation chances should increase and temperatures will likely slide back somewhat, but will likely remain mild.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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