Unsettled, Cool Pattern Continues
An area of low pressure remains parked over eastern Canada and will continue to supply cool, showery weather to the Finger Lakes for two more days.
Today will be similar to yesterday, with a couple of subtle differences.
First, it should take a little longer for precipitation to pop up today. The midday and early afternoon hours are most likely to see the pop-up showers as some atmospheric energy rotates around the low through our area. Most of the morning should remain dry.
The other subtle difference will be a slight decrease in the number of showers compared to yesterday. Still, most areas should see some more rain today, and many will probably also see some small hail, graupel, and/or snowflakes mixing in as well.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two warmer. Highs will range from the upper 40s in the typically cooler higher elevations to a few mid 50s in the river valleys of the Southern Tier. Most areas will be near or just over 50 degrees.
Winds will remain light from a west-northwest direction with speeds around 5 mph. Top gusts will only reach 15-20 mph.
Precipitation will diminish this evening, but will redevelop during the predawn hours as the next impulse of energy moves in. Clouds will increase ahead of this, which will help hold temperatures mainly in the mid 30s overnight.
Snow showers will turn over to rain during the morning Wednesday as they move east across the region. For areas west of Keuka Lake, most of the precipitation should be limited to the morning. To the east, however, additional afternoon showers will develop. Some small hail and a couple rumbles of thunder will be possible, mainly through about 6 PM.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar, with highs mostly in the low 50s once again. Precipitation will move east, and skies should clear at least partially overnight. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 30s, but with colder pockets likely.
More Unsettled Weather
Thursday will be a break in the action and the one dry day over the coming week. Morning sun will give way to plenty of fair weather clouds, but the chances for rain should be minimal, if not zero. The clouds will dissipate late in the afternoon.
Winds on Thursday will be nearly calm with highs pushing into the mid and upper 50s. A few of the typically warmer areas may reach 60 degrees.
A southeast wind will develop Thursday night as clouds begin to increase. Overnight lows will be around 40 degrees as a result.
Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Friday, and by the late afternoon or evening hours, rain will start to move into the area. Showers will continue overnight and into Saturday. Saturday morning looks a bit more showery than the afternoon, but that detail remains uncertain this far in advance.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday will depend on how the rain evolves. Friday should be warmer, with highs around or above 60 degrees, while Saturday is more likely to be stuck in the 50s.
Confidence in the details of the forecast continue to decline as we head into Sunday and Monday. Low pressure is expected to develop along the Atlantic coast and lift northward. Rain is likely to make it into the Finger Lakes, and heavy rain is a possibility. The prime time for rain currently looks like Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures will remain cool for the start of May behind this system. Much of next week will have highs struggling to get much beyond 50 degrees. Warmer air will become more likely as we head towards the following weekend and beyond.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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