Early Week Rain Chances
A weak atmospheric disturbance will pass through the region today with some sporadic nighttime showers.
There should be plenty of cloud cover today, but some breaks of sun are also likely, especially early this morning and later in the afternoon.
What sunshine there is will be filtered by high levels of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere.
North and northwest winds will blow at speeds between 7-12 mph today, with the strongest winds coming in the southeastern Finger Lakes. A few gusts to 30 mph will be possible across Tompkins, Cortland, and Tioga counties.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low and mid 70s. This is spot on the average temperatures for early June, but today will also be the warmest day of the workweek.
The daytime hours are expected to remain dry, but a few spotty showers will drop south through the area during the evening and overnight hours. Many areas will not end up seeing rain, and those that do will see very light, non-beneficial amounts.
The chances for rain on Tuesday are dwindling away as well. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, but most, if not all, of the pop-up showers will remain east of the area. Again, even if it did rain, it would not amount to any meaningful amounts.
Winds on Tuesday will be from the northwest at a slightly stronger 10-15 mph. The strongest gusts, up to 35 mph, will be roughly from Ithaca to Syracuse and southward. Elsewhere, gusts will be up to 30 mph.
Temperatures will lose a couple of degrees compared to today with highs mostly in the low 70s. Higher elevations will have highs around 70.
Wednesday looks sunny and dry. Time will tell how much wildfire smoke will be present to filter the sunshine, though. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Northwest winds will be similar to today.
Late Week Weather
There will be a better chance for rain showers late in the week, but it is not much to get excited about.
Both Thursday and Friday have a chance for scattered showers in the area. These showers will be associated with low pressure stalled out over New England.
It looks as though the showers will be scattered at best and generally light. Some areas will probably miss out on the rain all together. Very few places will end up with over a tenth of an inch of rainfall between the two days.
Winds will remain northerly on both days, but wind speeds will be lighter. Top gusts should be around 20 mph on both days.
Temperatures will be at their coolest on Thursday with highs mainly in the mid 60s. Friday will return to highs around 70 degrees.
Both days will have cool mornings, especially across the Southern Tier. Here, low and mid 40s will be commonplace. In the north and along lake shores, overnight temperatures will be closer to 50 degrees.
Warmer air will build in for the weekend with upper 70s on Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday looks cloudier, and thus a touch cooler with mid 70s.
The medium range models are showing a chance for some substantial rainfall early next week. However, these models have been showing that type of rain about a week in advance for the last several weeks. Each time, as the promised rainfall gets closer, it dwindles away to almost nothing.
Time will tell if that happens again, but until the models actually get it right, I will remain skeptical.
Temperatures should continue to generally be close to average, though the chances for warmer weather will outweigh the chances for cooler weather following the weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.