High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean will lead to increasing temperatures until a cold front moves through during the first half of Friday.
Skies are mostly clear across the Finger Lakes this morning, though some patchy river valley fog has developed in the usual areas across the Southern Tier.
There should be plenty of sunshine throughout today. Fair weather clouds will bubble up later this morning and will continue to grow for the afternoon.
A few stray showers are still possible during the peak daytime heating hours of the mid and late afternoon. Most areas will not see any rain, and those that do should only see light amounts over a brief time. It is questionable how many of these showers will even pop up, and it could end up totally dry across the region.
Temperatures today will be around 90 degrees in the typically warmer urban areas, such as Syracuse, Geneva, and Elmira. Most areas will be in the upper 80s, with mid 80s in higher elevations. Dewpoints will be muggy in the mid and upper 60s.
Winds will be nearly calm most of the day, with just a slight whisper of a breeze from the north and northwest.
It will again be mostly clear tonight, with some patchy river valley fog. Temperatures will only get down into the mid and upper 60s, and a few areas may not quite get below 70 degrees overnight.
Thursday will be more of the same, only a bit hotter.
Many areas will be at or above 90 degrees, though some of the typically cooler areas will stick to the upper 80s. The Syracuse area looks the hottest, with highs possibly getting as high as 93 or 94 degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the mid and upper 60s, resulting in a heat index that is a couple of degrees above the actual temperature.
There is again a very small chance for a few pop up showers during the afternoon. Like today, most, if not all, the area will end up dry.
The chances for rain may increase Thursday evening and overnight, however. Not all areas will see rain, but showers and storms will gradually become more and more possible.
Cold Front, Weekend Weather
The increase in rain chances will be in response to an approaching cold front. The front will not move through until the later morning or early afternoon hours on Friday, so temperatures will remain warm and muggy Thursday night. Expect morning lows Friday in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through Friday morning and into the early afternoon. The further east, the later the rain will be possible.
As long as the front clears the region by the early afternoon, most of the thunderstorm activity on Friday should stay east of the area.
This would open up Friday afternoon as a mostly dry time with a gentle, refreshing northwest wind holding temperatures in the low 80s. Dewpoints will drop through the 60s and into the 50s by the late afternoon.
Saturday is looking mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should reach the low 80s with nearly calm winds.
Late in the day, and especially after sunset, showers may move into the area as a frontal boundary sets up overhead. Low pressure will ride along the front, spreading showers and thunderstorms into the area Sunday morning and possibly into Sunday afternoon.
There is some potential for excessive rainfall from this system, especially for areas near and east of Cayuga Lake. This will need to be monitored over the coming days.
Most of next week is looking quiet, with just a mid or late week cold front bringing a few showers and storms.
Temperatures will start the week in the low 80s, but may inch their way upward ahead of said cold front.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.