16 Jul 2023

A few Sunday storms followed by a smoky Monday

by | posted in: Forecast | 2
Map showing moderate to unhealthy Air Quality Index values stretching across the Dakotas, Iowa, and northern Illinois with an arrow pointing towards the Finger Lakes, indicating the expected arrival of moderate to unhealthy AQI on Monday.
A smoke plume from western Canada is expected to produce moderate to unhealthy air in the Finger Lakes on Monday following a cold front that will trigger a few storms Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Morning Updates

This is good news and bad news this morning regarding the weather over the next 6-30 hours.

Rain overnight was quick moving as it moved through the region. The heaviest rain also began to get transferred eastward as it moved in. As a result, only light rainfall amounts fell last night, despite widespread precipitation.

That in turn will reduce the risk for flooding this afternoon. But that is not the only mitigating factor.

Thunderstorms this afternoon are looking more scattered and quicker moving than they had been on the models. So, while there should still be some thundery downpours around during the mid to late afternoon, the chances for severe weather and flooding appear to be minimal.

A cold front will move through late in the day, ending the rain chances, but ushering in a long-lasting plume of wildfire smoke from western Canada.

I have been monitoring this plume for several days as it tracked across the northern Plains and into the Midwest. Air Quality Index values are in the red UNHEALTH range (151-200) this morning from Edmonton, Alberta to Chicago.

The smoke models, which only run up to 51 hours into the future, are now showing the plume moving directly into the Finger Lakes.

In the wake of the cold front, conditions will be ripe for mixing this smoke down to the surface. The modeled amounts of near-surface smoke are expected to be less than the June 7th event, but greater than the late June event.

With that in mind, and given the current AQI values across the plume, I am expecting Moderate to Unhealthy AQI values in our region throughout the day Monday.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast sun jul 16 | sun, a few afternoon storms low 80 | mon, wildfire smoke late rain mid 80 | tues, a few showers near 80 | wed, maybe a stray shower upper 70 | thur, sun and clouds low 80 | fri, scattered t-storms upper 70 | sat, a few showers mid 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

There will also be another round of rain and thundery downpours Monday evening. Widespread flooding is not expected with this, but some localized poor drainage ponding could occur.

It is unclear how the smoke will evolve into Tuesday, but I would not be surprised to have at least some in the area. Winds across the Midwest and Great Lakes turn more southerly on Wednesday, which seems favorable for cleaner air.

The coming week as a whole looks a bit calmer than it has been lately. Temperatures and humidity values will be a bit lower, and the chances for significant rain will be minimal, except perhaps on Friday when a front brings some more thunderstorms.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast sun jul 16 | sun, a few afternoon storms low 80 | mon, wildfire smoke late rain mid 80 | tues, a few showers near 80 | wed, maybe a stray shower upper 70 | thur, sun and clouds low 80 | fri, scattered t-storms upper 70 | sat, a few showers mid 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. David
    |

    About what time on Monday morning will the air be unhealthy? I hate missing my early-morning walk!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      The smoke will be moving in around and after midnight, so the air quality will probably already be noticeably worse by the morning. As always, though… check the current conditions and make plans based on that!