On and Off Rain
A pair of low pressure systems moving through the area will keep the weather unsettled today, but that does not mean it will constantly rain.
One low pressure is centered to our southeast this morning and was responsible for much of the rain that fell overnight. While the main area of rain has pulled away, numerous showers are lingering over the area this morning.
These showers should gradually wind down over the course of the morning, with a few spits of rain possibly lingering into the midday hours. There will be a lull in the precipitation, which should last until the mid to late afternoon.
By then, the second low will meander to a position over Lake Erie. Just to the east of the low, there will be just enough fuel to pop some thunderstorms across southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.
These showers and storms will slowly track northeastward into the Finger Lakes, mostly arriving after 4 PM, if not even a bit later. Locally heavy downpours will be possible, and there is just the slightest chance for an isolated severe storm thanks to the close proximity of the low pressure system. Even a brief, weak tornado spin-up cannot be completely ruled out, though is more likely to our west.
Scattered showers will continue into the evening hours, gradually diminishing once again. A few showers may linger into Wednesday morning or even the midday hours before everything dries out.
Temperatures may sneak into the mid 70s this afternoon during the lull, but much of the time, it will be a bit cooler than that. Tonight will be mild and a bit muggy, with lows in the low and mid 60s. Once the lingering clouds burn off on Wednesday, highs should reach the upper 70s.
One Quick System, then Quiet Weather
The weather will be quiet from Wednesday afternoon until late Thursday. However, another weather system will begin its approach, leading to an influx of warmer, more humid air.
Temperatures on Thursday will make it into the low and mid 80s, thanks in large part to southwest winds near 10 mph.
This should all be enough to pop a few stray showers later Thursday afternoon. Not all areas will get wet, and most of the showers will be brief and light.
A cold front will then move through during the overnight hours Thursday night. Showers will be possible with the front, which may linger into the morning hours on Friday. How long Friday these showers will stick around is still a bit uncertain, but as a whole, Friday does not look too wet.
It will turn cool behind this front with highs on Friday mostly in the low 70s. Winds will increase through the morning, peaking at 10-15 mph from the west-northwest during the early afternoon. Gust as high as 35 mph may be possible, especially for the parts of the region west of Seneca Lake.
Clouds may stick around much of the day, but eventually, skies will clear. This will lead to a cool night with lows Saturday morning in the low and mid 50s. Areas of fog are likely overnight, as are a few lake effect showers downwind of Lake Ontario.
Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 70s. Sunday will follow suit, only warmer, with highs jumping to the low 80s.
The early part of next week looks dry and warm. The weather may get a bit on the hot side for the middle of the week. Some thunderstorms may begin to show up later in the week, but this remains uncertain.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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