Sun and Clouds
An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually shift eastward over the next 36 hours.
Beneath this high, the weather will be quiet. Behind the high, unsettled conditions will gradually return.
For today, expect sunshine mixing with mainly thin clouds high in the atmosphere. Even when the clouds are present, some sunshine will filter through. A few small fair weather clouds may also bubble up during the afternoon. No rain will fall.
The center of the high will remain to our west through the daytime hours. This, in turn, will keep our winds from the north. Wind speeds will mostly be greater than 5 mph, but less than 10 mph. Top gusts will come in around 20 mph.
Afternoon highs will be about five degrees below the average with low and mid 70s across the region. Dewpoints will be low at only around 50 degrees, so it will not feel humid at all.
Skies will initially clear this evening and winds will go calm, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s. Clouds will increase after midnight, slowing the drop. Most areas should still end up in the low and mid 50s with a few pockets of upper 40s possible.
As the high pressure system passes to the east on Wednesday, moisture will start to push back in from the west. There will be periods of sunshine on Wednesday, but clouds will eventually win out, especially for the western half of the region.
There is uncertainty in the chances for rainfall, however. Most areas will not see any rain until the late afternoon at the earliest. The further west, the greater the chances for rain during the daytime hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move east Wednesday night. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, particularly across Allegany, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Steuben counties. Many of these areas have not seen the rainfall that the rest of the Finger Lakes has, and drought conditions still exist, so this will be a beneficial rain.
How far north and east the rains make it is one of the bigger questions of the forecast and will continue to be refined over the next day or so.
Unsettled to End the Week
As moisture returns to the area, small disturbances will determine how rainfall evolves through the end of the week.
On Thursday, showers are favored over the southern and eastern halves of the region. These should be light in nature but will possibly persist for much of the day. Again, though, uncertainty is higher than usual, so more fine-tuning will be needed for the forecast.
Light, scattered showers seem equally likely across all the Finger Lakes on Friday. It should not rain all day, and rain amounts will be on the order of a tenth of an inch or less.
Saturday will have a greater chance for some heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Most areas will see rainfall, with generalized amounts of a quarter to half an inch.
Temperatures Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will stay in the low and mid 70s. Saturday looks cooler, though, with about half of the region near or just under 70 degrees, and half near or just above 70 degrees.
Nighttime temperatures will be warmer with the clouds and showers, with lows near 60 degrees Thursday and Saturday morning, and in the mid 60s Friday morning.
High pressure will build back in for the back half of the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will slowly climb back toward the mid 70s. Nighttime temperatures will return to the 50s.
There will probably be a chance for rain at some point next week, but at this point, it is too uncertain to pinpoint when.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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