A frontal boundary running through the Great Lakes region is separating cool across the Northeast and very hot air throughout the Mid-West and Plains.
Along this boundary, near-constant rain and thunderstorms have been ongoing over the last 24 hours over eastern Michigan, southwestern Ontario, and much of Ohio. So far, very little of the activity has been able to make its way eastward, and if anything, has been drifting further west with time.
However, there are a few stray showers in the Finger Lakes region this morning, along with plenty of clouds.
There should be a gradual increase in shower activity during the midday and afternoon hours. The rain should remain sporadic to scattered, so much of the time it will probably not be raining. Heavy rain and lightning are not expected during the daytime hours.
Southeast winds will blow, peaking in the early afternoon over areas east of Cayuga Lake. Wind speeds here will likely be over 10 mph with gusts over 25 mph. Winds will gradually become less the further west you go.
Temperatures will follow the same pattern, only opposite, with the warmest readings in the far west and cool air east of Cayuga Lake. Mid 70s are likely in the Genesee Valley, with low 70s and upper 60s for most of the immediate Finger Lakes region. Some higher elevations in the east may not escape the mid 60s.
Stray showers will continue early in the evening, but by midnight, there will be a chance for a thunderstorm complex to move in from the west.
Given the overall setup, there is some inherent uncertainty in the exact location of this complex of storms. Still, most models are in agreement that it should at least clip the region, if not move directly through. Heavy rain will be the primary threat from this, with localized amounts over two inches within the realm of possibility.
If the storms over the last 24 hours to our west are any indication, these storms may contain frequent to near continuous lightning as well.
The heavy rain and thunderstorms should clear out before sunrise Friday. Scattered showers will remain likely through Friday morning but should gradually diminish Friday afternoon. A few may linger into the evening hours, but they should be fairly isolated.
Winds on Friday will start out from the south but will end up from the north as a low pressure center passes overhead. Wind speeds will be lighter than today with speeds of 5-10 mph. The wind may go calm for a while during the midday hours as the low passes overhead.
Some sunshine will poke out between showers, particularly in the afternoon. This should help nudge temperatures into the mid and upper 70s. It will be muggy with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
Saturday will start with temperatures in the 60s. A front will drop south through the region with scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms if the front arrives late enough in the midday or afternoon hours.
Much of the time Saturday will probably end up dry and there may even be some sun later in the afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 70s.
Sunday will start with some clouds and a few showers, but the afternoon will turn sunnier. It will be a few degrees cooler with north winds behind the front. Look for highs in the low 70s.
Monday should be dry, at least until the evening hours when rain showers will increase. Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will start the week in the mid 70s but will take a dive into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.
A dry period with warming temperatures will then take hold in early September with highs probably returning to the 80s for a time.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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