Staying Unsettled
A broad southerly flow has resulted in the formation of a weak frontal boundary, which is stalled over the Finger Lakes region.
This front is oriented from southwest to northeast and has wobbled back and forth to the east and west. The broader area surrounding the front remains mostly cloudy, and the front will serve as a focal point for showers today.
This will place the best chance for rain showers across the heart of the Finger Lakes region, with the northwest and southeast corners less likely to see rain than the rest of the area. Locations such as Bath, Penn Yan, Geneva, Auburn, Syracuse, and Ithaca will be in the favored zone for showers.
At the edges of the region, the southeastern corner has a greater chance for rain than the northwest corner.
The rain today will likely organize itself into bands of broken showers with a few brief downpours and maybe a stray rumble of thunder or two. The bands will orient themselves along a southwest-to-northeast axis and will move along the same axis toward the northeast.
These showers should develop during the latter half of the morning and will continue off and on into the afternoon. Locally over a half inch may fall, but most areas should see less.
High temperatures will reach the mid and upper 70s this afternoon with muggy dewpoints well into the 60s. Winds will remain from the south at 5-10 mph.
Tonight, a wave of low pressure will move along the front as the front creeps eastward. An area of widespread rain will develop over Pennsylvania and clip the southeastern half of the Finger Lakes. Exactly how far north into the Finger Lakes this rain makes it is uncertain, but the core of the heaviest rain looks like it should just miss our area.
This rain is most likely after midnight, with showers possible during the evening and outside of the steadier rain overnight. Should the heavier rain fall a bit further to the northwest in the Finger Lakes, some of the same areas that saw heavy rain yesterday could see an inch or more again overnight. Again, this is not currently expected, though it is in the realm of possibility.
It will remain mild and muggy overnight, with lows and dewpoints in the low 60s. Far western areas should slip into the 50s.
Cold Front Changes the Pattern
A different front will move through the area on Wednesday with some scattered showers. These will be possible throughout the day and into the evening but should remain sporadic and light. It will be cloudy and cooler with some drizzle also possible.
Winds will turn to the northwest and increase to 10-15 mph. A few gusts over 30 mph will be possible, especially along the shore of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will top out near or just above 70 degrees. Dewpoints will start in the 60s but will fall to the 50s during the morning and continue dropping through the afternoon.
There is a high likelihood that this will be the last of the rain we see for some time.
High pressure will build in on Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain cool with morning lows ranging from the mid 50s near Lake Ontario to some mid 40s in the western Southern Tier and Central New York. Afternoon highs will be near or just under 70 degrees.
Friday will also be mostly sunny. The clear skies and calm winds Thursday night will start Friday’s temperatures in the 40s and 50s again, but afternoon highs will be warmer in the mid 70s.
Some clouds will return on Saturday as warmer air really starts to push in. Rain seems unlikely, though. Temperatures will climb into the low 80s.
Sunny skies will return on Sunday as temperatures continue to climb. Look for highs in the mid and upper 80s, though dewpoints will still be on the lower side in the 50s and lower half of the 60s.
Heat will continue to build next week with skies remaining mostly sunny. Highs on Monday should be in the upper 80s with a few areas breaking 90 degrees. Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday next week should all have well above-average temperatures flirting with 90 degrees.
Humidity levels will come up as well, but there will be nothing to trigger even stray pop-up showers or storms until late in the week.
Rain may re-enter the forecast towards the second weekend of September as temperatures start to moderate back down through the 80s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
