Dominant High Pressure
A large area of high pressure is nearly overhead this morning and will stick around the area for several more days.
Just to the north of the high, a small weather system is moving across Canada. This system will trigger an increase in fair weather clouds today but will have no other impacts on our region.
Winds today will be near calm or light from the north. Even with the extra clouds and slight north wind, temperatures will at least match if not exceed yesterday’s values. Some of the typically warmer valleys and urban areas will top out around 80 degrees. Upper and mid 70s will be commonplace elsewhere.
Skies will clear shortly before sunset and remain as thus overnight, outside of a few areas of patchy fog. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s across the south to the upper 50s in the north.
Tuesday will go back to nearly full sunshine. Winds will remain nearly calm or light from the north with the high practically overhead.
Temperatures on Tuesday will add a couple more degrees with many areas near or above 80 degrees. Mid 80s will even be possible in the Genesee Valley and in localized areas of the Southern Tier and around Rochester.
There will be no change Tuesday night or Wednesday, with skies remaining clear outside some near-dawn patchy fog. Morning lows Wednesday will have the same split between mid and upper 50s.
Afternoon highs will reach their high point with even higher elevation getting to near 80 degrees, while mid 80s become widespread from Dansville to Rochester to Syracuse.
Much of Wednesday night will remain clear, but some clouds will start to work in during the predawn hours of Thursday morning. Southern areas will start Thursday in the upper 50s, while northern areas will be in the low 60s.
Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Thursday, and the day should end up mostly to fully cloudy. However, no rain is expected from any of these clouds, and the sun may still try to filter through the clouds at times.
Without the sunshine, temperatures will take a small hit. Low 80s will be possible from Dansville to Rochester to Syracuse. Most of the remainder of the region will be in the upper 70s with some mid 70s in higher elevations.
Thursday night will be quite warm for October with clouds and breezy south winds. Overnight lows will be near or into the 60s throughout the region.
The first rain showers will start to move in sometime on Friday. The later in the day, the greater the chance for rain showers.
Temperatures will continue to reverse course, with highs mainly between 70-75 degrees.
Rain will be increasingly likely into Saturday as a cold front slowly pushes through the region. Some of the rain may be heavy, though the details remain sketchy this far out.
Temperatures will make a more significant drop on Saturday. Highs are generously set at near 60 degrees right now, but if it rains steadily much of the day, it may not escape the 50s.
By Sunday, cool air will be firmly in place with some of the coldest temperatures yet this season. Some areas may not even reach 50 degrees for a high on Sunday or Monday. Rain showers will continue to be commonplace.
Temperatures should moderate towards the climatological averages later next week with highs in the 60s and nighttime temperatures in the 40s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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