Early Week Weather
A stretch of dry, quiet weather will extend through the workweek with the first chances for precipitation not coming until late Friday.
The main question each day this week will therefore be how much sun shines and where the temperatures end up.
A slight northeast wind has brought some low-level lake moisture into the area to start things off this Monday morning. The result is a broad area of low cloudiness that should gradually break up as the morning goes on.
The afternoon will turn mostly sunny with temperatures nosing their way into the mid and upper 30s. Winds will remain northerly with speeds of 5-10 mph.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows down into the low and mid 20s. Pockets of upper 10s are also expected.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny, with a few thin clouds late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be similar to today, mostly in the mid 30s. A light northerly breeze will persist.
Temperatures will dive back down into the low and mid 20s Tuesday night.
High pressure will build in overhead on Wednesday, causing winds to be nearly calm. Without the northerly flow, temperatures will jump up to the low 40s. Skies will be a mix of sunshine and a few passing clouds.
Mild Late Week
By Thursday, winds will turn to the south as high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure develops across the northern Great Plains.
With skies still a mix of a few clouds and a fair amount of sunshine, the south winds will help temperatures jump again. Look for highs on Thursday to range from the upper 40s to the low 50s.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday night, helping to keep temperatures well into the 30s overnight. This, in turn, will get Friday off to a running start. Even with an increase in cloud cover, highs should still be at or above 50 degrees for most areas.
Scattered showers will be possible late Friday and Friday night. None of the rain will be heavy. Nighttime temperatures will mainly stick to the 40s.
Saturday will likewise have a few scattered showers but will be far from a washout of a day. Temperatures will spend one final day at or above 50 degrees.
Cooler air will start to seep into the region on Sunday, though it will not yet be cold. Highs should end up somewhere in the 40s with continuing scattered rain showers.
Even next Monday may stay near 40 degrees before highs settle into a new pattern of low and mid 30s. Near average to slightly below average temperatures are expected through next week and into the following week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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john bruzdzinski
Good morning Drew:
One fairly well known private forecaster put out a map today showing cold and several major snowstorms from Feb 15th to March 25th. I know the general outlook from most weather sources is that we will be back to normal winter conditions starting around Feb 14 and lasting at least a few weeks. What is your take on the 2nd half of Feb and early March?
We always enjoy your work.
Thanks.
John B.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi John,
Yeah, I see the pattern turning cooler for the second half of February… but I’m not convinced yet, based on what I see, that it is going to be headline grabbing arctic cold. As for storms… it is impossible to pick out major snow storms weeks in advance. Too often, people see a pattern that *could* be a set up for storm potential and then report it as if it is a done deal. But these big storms take soooo much going exactly right for them to come together, that any talk of specific storms or even a certainty that a pattern will yield multiple storms is premature and/or hyperbole.
john bruzdzinski
Drew:
I appreciate your down to earth approach to weather forecasting and your easy to understand explanations. Thanks for the reply.
John B.