A strong cold front will cross the region late Saturday, with warm temperatures and some thunderstorms ahead of the front, and cold air and snow showers behind. Frost and freeze conditions are possible early next week, which will likely damage early blossoms.
Friday
What: Morning rain showers, increasing afternoon sun
A separate cold front moved into the area last night and is still working its way through early Friday morning. Cloudy skies and rain showers will persist through the morning, but the afternoon will see a gradual increase in sunshine. Temperatures will not be as warm as the last few days but most areas should still get to or above 60 degrees. Winds will be light from the northwest, will go calm this evening, then turn back to the south overnight. Temperatures will rise a few degrees before sunrise.
Saturday
What: Warm and breezy. Late day storms, nighttime rain.
Impacts: Non-thunderstorm wind gusts 30-40 mph. Chance for higher thunderstorm winds, particularly in the western half of the region.
Blustery south winds will help push temperatures back into the 70s for Saturday. Sun will mix with clouds, and a stray morning shower cannot be totally ruled out. A line of rain and thunderstorms will develop to our west during the afternoon and should move into out region roughly around sunset. On this timeline, the line will be weakening as it enters the region, but some severe storms may be possible over the western half of the region. Additional rain is likely overnight as low pressure develops along the front. With falling temperatures, some of this may mix with or turn to snow by sunrise Sunday.
Sunday
What: Occasional showers, some snow mixing in
Rain and/or snow showers are likely early Sunday morning, especially in the eastern Finger Lakes. The precipitation should become more scattered over the course of the morning, but showers will linger into the afternoon. Additional snow will be possible Sunday night but with little to no accumulation. Northwest winds on Sunday should be a little breezy, but not as strong as on Saturday. Daytime highs will struggle into the low 40s.
Monday
What: Daytime snow showers. Frost/Freeze at night.
Scattered snow showers and blustery northwest winds are likely on Monday with most areas seeing a high in the upper 30s. Precipitation will end late in the day and skies may clear for the night, leading to frost and freeze conditions with damage to early blossoms likely. Many areas will see overnight temperatures into the 20s.
Tuesday
What: Sun and thin clouds
Quiet weather is likely on Tuesday with sunshine mixing with some thin clouds at most. Winds will turn back to the south, allowing temperatures to climb back toward the seasonal averages in the 50s. Tuesday night should not be nearly as cold with overnight temperatures in the 40s. Some scattered rain showers will be possible during the night.
Wednesday
What: Clouds early, increasing sun
Wednesday will be quiet overall, though an early morning shower cannot be ruled out this far in advanced. Sunshine will increase with temperatures again in the 50s.
Late Next Week & Beyond
Computer model projections begin to diverge late next week, with some holding temperatures in the 50s while others bring in warmer air. Either way, conditions look mostly dry late next week and possibly next weekend as well. Consensus is a bit higher the following week, with temperatures mainly sticking in the 50s or perhaps lower 60s.
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