Thursday Severe Threat: Level 2- Low Chance

finger lakes weather forecast thursday july 11 2019 severe thunderstorms damaging winds
There is a Level 2- Low risk for severe thunderstorms in the Finger Lakes this afternoon, but there are question on whether the threat will fully materialize. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Uncertain Storm Evolution

An approaching cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms today in an environment marginally capable of producing severe thunderstorms.

Clouds and some scattered showers out ahead of the front are already in the Finger Lakes this morning and may continue off and on into the early afternoon. With an already less than ideal set up for strong storms, this is just another factor that keeps the threat low.

Still, during the mid and late afternoon hours, the potential will exist for at least a few robust storms to fire up. It is not at all certain that these storms will be able to overcome the obstacles to do so.

In a worst-case scenario, there will be a couple line segments capable of producing tree damage and scattered power outages. With frequent lightning and heavy winds, these storms may seem quite intense as they roll through.

In a best-case scenario, there will be some rain and thunder, but no severe thunderstorms.

The timing of the storm is also uncertain and could be as early as 2 PM or as late as 9 PM.

My feeling is that today will unfold closer to the best-case scenario with storms struggling to intensify. One or two may briefly reach severe thresholds, especially in the late afternoon. The severe threat should drop quickly after sunset.

Given the uncertainty, though, I have kept the risk level at Level 2- Low.

Be weather aware this afternoon and check back for updates as necessary.

Another Dry Stretch

Clouds and a few showers will linger across the region tonight and into the first half of Friday. Temperatures and humidity levels will be slow to drop as well.

Much of the overnight will be muggy with temperatures holding in the upper 60s. Cooler, less humid air will start to arrive near dawn. Temperatures should briefly fall into the mid 60s before daytime heating kicks in. Afternoon highs Friday will only reach the low and mid 70s.

Saturday will get a boost back into the low and mid 80s, but the atmosphere will remain dry with low humidity levels. A front will swoop through Saturday night but with little to no precipitation in the dry air. Sunday will be cooler with 70s returning along with a mix of sun and clouds.

Monday and Tuesday next week should be dry and sunny. Temperatures on Monday will return to the 80s while Tuesday could push or exceed 90 degrees.

The weather for the second half of next week is less certain and may partially depend on the path of soon to be Tropical Storm Barry, which will form over the northern Gulf of Mexico today. Late next week should either be rainy, or quite hot, but probably not both.

Do You Know?

The difference between a severe weather WATCH and a WARNING?

A watch, such as a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Flash Flood Watch means conditions are favorable for the declared weather type. Watches are issued over large areas for lengthy amounts of time, often before dangerous conditions develop. Watches are a first alert for the potential of dangerous weather.

A warning, such as a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning means dangerous weather is occurring. Warnings are issued for small areas and shorter periods of time. Warnings should always be taken seriously and require some sort of action to remain safe.

» See the latest Weather Alerts for the Finger Lakes.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.