An area of low pressure over the middle of the country will send widespread rain into the Finger Lakes on Monday.
This morning, a few scattered showers are already making their way into the area, though not all of these are even reaching the ground.
The rain will become more widespread this morning with most of the region seeing steady rain by noontime. Rain will continue throughout the afternoon before tapering off this evening.
Temperatures are starting today ranging from the low 40s in the northwest to the mid 30s in the southeast. Only a modest rise in temperature is expected with most areas reaching the mid and low 40s.
Winds will continue to be breezy from the south. Higher elevations will see gusts of 30-35 mph while everyone else gusts between 25-30 mph.
Tonight, temperatures will hold in the low 40s early on before rising into the mid 40s overnight. More scattered rain showers are likely.
Some areas could see around a half-inch of rain by Tuesday morning. This will not be enough to cause flooding issues, even combined with some snow melt.
Up and Down Pattern
On Tuesday, the cold front associated with this weather system will move through. Temperatures will initially slip back into the low 40s during the morning before a more significant drop into the 30s during the afternoon.
A few scattered rain showers will be possible early on, especially along the cold front. These will turn to flurries during the early afternoon. A few squalls may develop during the late afternoon and into the evening as the snow briefly becomes more widespread due to lake effect.
By Wednesday morning, winds will turn from the northwest to the west, then southwest. Lake effect bands will be on the move as a result, with the Lake Ontario snow pushing north of the Finger Lakes and the Lake Erie snow sweeping across the region.
The Lake Erie snow should also push north of the region by the midday hours Wednesday. Accumulations from Tuesday into Wednesday will only be an inch or two, but brief periods of tricky travel will be possible with any squalls.
Temperatures on Wednesday will top out within a few degrees on either side of 30.
The lake effect snow will swing back south Wednesday night and into Thursday. The lake effect prone areas southeast of Lake Ontario will have the best chance at seeing some additional light accumulations. Outside of the lake effect, some sunshine will finally break through.
Morning temperatures Thursday will start in the teens with afternoon highs sticking in the mid and upper 20s.
Friday will be the start of a return to milder temperatures with highs reaching the mid and upper 30s. Next weekend looks similar to the pattern we are currently in with periods of rain and temperatures sneaking above 40 degrees.
Early indications are we may go through the cool-down warm-up cycle again next week as well.