Warm, then Wet & Windy
Milder air will return to the Finger Lakes today, thanks to a southwest flow out ahead of our next weather maker.
Temperatures are starting the day ranging through the 30s. While winds at the surface are calm this morning, south and southeast winds will develop through the day.
Not much in the way of sunshine is expected today, with clouds already in the region. A few of these may break up some this morning, allowing for a glimpse of the sun here and there.
Afternoon highs should reach the low and mid 50s for most areas. The Southern Tier and higher elevations of Central New York are the most likely areas to see only low 50s.
Winds will become blustery this evening with gusts over 30 mph first showing over higher elevations by midnight. Gusts of 30+ mph will become more common through the night with a few gusts reaching 40 mph.
The first chances for rain will be this afternoon as a few spits of drizzle work in. Most areas will stay dry this afternoon. Showers will gradually increase overnight with the best chance for widespread rain coming between 4-10 AM Friday morning.
This is not expected to be a heavy rain event, with most areas seeing around or just over a quarter inch. However, a few brief downpours will be possible Friday morning.
The rain will end as a cold front moves through late Friday morning. Temperatures should peak in the low and mid 50s Friday morning ahead of the front.
Strong west and southwest winds will develop behind the front with frequent 35-45 mph gusts. The favored “wind belt” that stretches from Buffalo to Rochester, and for areas just south, wind gusts could exceed 50 mph.
These winds will be accompanied by falling temperatures. By dinnertime Friday, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Cool Weekend, then Another Warm-Up
A pair of high pressure systems will build in for the weekend behind Friday’s wet and windy weather.
Winds will still be on the blustery side early Saturday but should diminish throughout the day. The winds will take on a more northwesterly direction.
These winds will hold temperatures around 40 degrees on Saturday. Higher elevations will likely stick in the upper 30s.
Saturday should start out sunny before a patch of thin clouds moves through the afternoon and evening.
By Saturday evening, the second high pressure, which will be much stronger and originate from Canada, will absorb the first high. Winds will become more northerly and cool air will make another push southward.
Morning lows Sunday will be in the low and mid 20s. Afternoon highs will range from the low 30s in the north to the mid 30s in the south.
Sunday will be sunny though, with only a couple morning clouds expected. Clear skies will persist through the night, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper teens for most of the region.
Winds will reverse course on Monday and swing around to the south. Sunny skies should remain in place, resulting in highs back into the mid 40s.
Tuesday will have a few morning rain shower or flurries, but afternoon temperatures will make a run at 50 degrees. Wednesday has a chance at the upper 50s before a subtle front knocks temperatures back to the 40s for Thursday.
Another system will target the region next weekend with another surge of warm air preceding it.