Far Below Normal Temperatures
After having temperatures near and above average this weekend, another long lasting surge of cold air is pouring into the Finger Lakes this morning.
Low pressure along the coast of New England is strengthening this morning while a secondary cold front is dropping south from Canada.
This front will spread a few showers across the area this morning and will keep clouds thick most of the afternoon. Cold air behind the front will whisk in on blustery northwest winds this afternoon, reinforcing the cold air that has already been moving in overnight.
Wind gusts this afternoon will peak between 25-35 mph as temperatures mainly hold steady in the mid 40s.
Skies will clear this evening and winds will diminish. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s. Now that it is May, the growing season has officially started for the northern half of the Finger Lakes, which means the National Weather Service will begin issuing frost and freeze alerts.
A freeze watch is in effect for those areas. The watch should be turned to a freeze warning or a frost advisory later today.
This does not mean the counties not under the watch will be warmer, and any cold sensitive plants in those areas will need to be protected tonight as well.
Tuesday will have a mix of sun and clouds, but highs will only top out in the mid and upper 40s. Wednesday may reach 50 degrees, but clouds will be thicker as a low pressure passes to the south. This low could spread a few late showers into the Southern Tier if it tracks just a small bit further north.
Snow Still Possible
Another weather system will push towards our region late in the week. At first, this will give us a slight boost, with highs Thursday in the mid 50s with a few late day showers.
On Friday, rain will move in as low pressure tracks south, then east of the region. Temperatures will start in the 40s, but will fall late in the day, allowing snow to mix in. Snow will continue through Friday night with flurries on Saturday.
There is good early agreement from the models on at least seeing snow in the air sometime from late Friday through the weekend. This is not like the snow hype of last week, which had virtually no support from consistency on the models.
Now, that being said, it is May, and it is extremely difficult to get accumulating snow this late in the season. It is not impossible, and has happened before, but exceptions to the rule require a lot of evidence and a healthy dose of scientific skepticism, which the media will surely not supply.
Obviously, I will watch this closely through the week and updating with the latest no-hype details. At this time, I expect snow to be in the air with a few places seeing a coating of white.
Next week will likely be a week of transition. As is so often the case with Spring in the Finger Lakes, we get one final cold snap, and then suddenly it is very warm. That may be the case by next weekend, with strong warm signals showing on the models.
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