Snow Behind Cold Front
A strong cold front will move through the Finger Lakes this afternoon, setting the stage for some lake effect snow overnight into Monday.
Ahead of the front, temperatures will approach or exceed 50 degrees early this afternoon. South winds will gust over 40 mph at times through the morning and early afternoon.
The front will cross the area from west to east during the mid afternoon. A few showers will be out ahead of the front, but the front itself will be marked by a line of gusty downpours.
Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front, ending up in the 30s for most areas by sunset (which will come an hour earlier than we are used to today, thanks to the end of Daylight Saving Time.)
Much of the evening will be quiet, though a few stray snow showers are likely here and there.
Lake snows will start to get going southeast of Lake Erie first late this evening, and then southeast of Lake Ontario after midnight. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service for Onondaga, Cortland, southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Wyoming counties.
Winds will remain strong and will help limit the lake effect organization and snowflake size. Combined with mild soil temperatures and air temperatures only being around freezing, these factors are all working against significant accumulations. I have adjusted my snow totals down from what the highest models are showing for this reason.
Still, some hilltops south of Syracuse and west of I-390 could see over 4 inches. Most of the lake effect prone areas of the Finger Lakes will see an inch or two, while areas that do not typically see much lake effect will only see some brief periods of snow with no accumulation.
The snow will dissipate over the Finger Lakes by the mid to late morning hours on Monday as winds shift. Gusts over 40 mph from the northwest, then west, are likely throughout Monday. This could lead to some localized blowing and drifting of the snow.
Travel Monday morning should generally be OK, though roads above 1200 feet may get messy. Rural roads especially could be snowy, so allow for some extra time if your commute takes you in these areas.
Some additional lake effect snow will be possible Monday evening as the Lake Erie band heads east across the Finger Lakes. This should only last a couple hours before the Lake Ontario band takes over north of the region.
A final batch of lake effect will drop south Tuesday morning and dissipate by the midday hours.
Each of these events could bring another one to two inches and will be described in more detail Monday morning.