Two frontal boundaries are stalled out near the Finger Lakes today, while a series of low pressure systems track through the eastern United States.
These fronts and low pressure systems will keep our weather active early this week, but with a mild flavor as at least one front stays to our north.
The area is dry to start this morning, but the chances for showers will gradually increase as the southern front lifts north in response to low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. Showers will be common this afternoon in an off and on manner. Most of the rain that falls during the daytime hours will be light.
A few breaks of sunshine will be possible early this morning, but otherwise, it should be a cloudy day.
Nonetheless, temperatures will rise well into the 60s by midday. Mid and upper 60s are likely for most areas. Temperatures will vary a bit more during the afternoon, with lower 60s or even some upper 50s while it is raining.
During the early evening hours, after 6 PM, the rain may become steadier and more widespread. This should mostly lift north by midnight.
Temperatures will start Tuesday in the low 50s. There is a better chance for some breaks of sun, especially in the afternoon. Showers will be more isolated, and many areas will probably stay dry during the day Tuesday.
Highs on Tuesday should get into the low 70s for most areas.
Sometime Tuesday night or early Wednesday, another area of precipitation will move in from the southwest. This may be accompanied by some thunderstorms with gusty winds. This will be something to watch over the coming days.
A cold front will follow the precipitation late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Temperatures will initially be in the low 60s Wednesday morning but will fall back into the 50s for most of the day. Additional periods of rain are possible, but the exact evolution of the precipitation remains uncertain at this time.
Skies will start to clear out Wednesday night, leading to nighttime temperatures in the upper 30s. Thursday will be sunny but cool with highs in the low 50s. This is about 10-15 degrees below average.
Another system will move in for Friday. If the precipitation arrives early enough, temperatures may be cold enough for some snow to mix in. The majority of what falls will be rain though, which should last through the day Friday.
With the cool air in place and a cloudy, rainy day, highs will struggle even to reach the mid 40s.
Temperatures will remain suppressed into the weekend, with highs near or slightly above 50 degrees. A few showers will be possible on Saturday. Sunday looks dry at this point, but there will be weather systems nearby, so that remains highly uncertain.
A lack of warm air will persist into the middle-third of May. Temperatures may climb back closer to average, but the chance for below average daily highs is greater than being at or above average.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.