Unsettled weather pattern sticking around

finger lakes weather forecast friday august 20 2021 showers storms weekend weather hurricane henri
Daily chances for showers and a few downpours will persist for the foreseeable future as Henri targets New England this weekend. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Scattered Showers

Hit or miss showers will continue to be part of the forecast for the foreseeable future as an unsettled pattern and moisture-laden atmosphere remain in place.

For Friday, the shower activity will be limited to a few stray afternoon pop-ups. Most areas will remain dry, and the best chance for a shower will be across the southern half of the region. Sunshine will mix with clouds, especially across the eastern half of the region.

Temperatures will top out around 80 degrees with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s.

After nearly calm winds tonight, Saturday will see the wind turn to the southeast. This flow will bring moisture in off the Atlantic. Dewpoints will increase to around or just above 70.

As temperatures rise into the low 80s, scattered showers will develop. There is still not much to trigger the activity, so the showers should not be too commonplace. A few brief downpours will be possible.

By Sunday, what will soon be Hurricane Henri (pronounced ahn-REE) will be making landfall along the coast of southern New England or Long Island. It is very unlikely, thankfully, that Henri will have direct impacts this far west in the Finger Lakes.

However, moisture will continue to increase and scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon in our region. Locally heavy downpours will, of course, be the primary concern.

Moisture associated with Henri may further increase into Monday as a small front moves into our region. This could again lead to some downpours on Monday.

As I have been stressing for several days now, uncertainties remain due to the complex nature of the weather pattern with Henri and with the path of Henri itself. The models have significantly trended Henri further and further west over the last couple days. This remains an evolving situation which I am keeping a very close eye on.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 20 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Heating Up

Henri will not be our only or even best chance for storms and downpours next week.

Temperatures will start to climb for the middle of the week as Henri races eastward and out of the picture. Tuesday should end up with just a few stray showers and a good deal of sunshine. High temperatures will push into the mid 80s.

Wednesday looks like the warmest upcoming day as highs push into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Humidity will remain high with dewpoints continuing to sit in the vicinity of 70 degrees.

A few pop-up showers and storms will be possible, but these will be hit or miss as well.

A front will move into the region around Thursday. With plenty of heat and humidity in place, showers and storms will be likely. Heavy downpours will be the primary threat, though the details this far in advance are not at all clear.

Temperatures behind the front will settle into the low 80s for next weekend. Another front will move through, pushing temperatures to the 70s for the final days of August.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 20 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.