A large area of heavy rain will try to sneak into the southeastern Finger Lakes today as the remains of Hurricane Ida track northeast.
So far early this morning, the rain has stayed to the south across Pennsylvania. However, the rain shield is creeping northward and should make it into parts of the region today.
There is very little geographic distance between areas seeing no rain, and those seeing steady moderate rain. As such, the sharp gradient in rain amounts I have been mentioning all week is on track.
Based on current radar data and model trends, I have taken a stab at rain amounts across the southeastern Finger Lakes. This map is a guideline only, and rain amounts will likely vary.
Starting along the northern edge, areas that will probably see some rain, but less than a quarter inch, include Bath, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, and Cortland. These areas will probably see on and off periods of rain along the jagged northern edge of the rain shield.
Just a few miles south, steadier rain will produce amounts up to but probably under an inch for Corning, Elmira, Berkshire, and Marathon. Amounts quickly increase, with Owego and Binghamton having a good shot at over two inches, with even higher amounts just south and east of there.
To the north, areas such as Dansville, Penn Yan, Auburn, and Syracuse should remain cloudy but dry today. A brief spit of rain cannot be totally ruled out, but this would be the exception to the rule.
Any slight wobbles in the track could push the rain further north or keep it a bit to the south of these projections. An error in the models of 10-25 miles would be very reasonable and a good projection, but would have major implications on the rain amounts for some areas.
The rain will start to move into the Southern Tier this morning and will reach its northern extent by midday. The low pressure will start to move to our east later this afternoon, ending the northward expansion. Also at work will be the dry air that moved in yesterday, which will act as a buffer from the rain.
The rain will pull out during the mid to late evening hours, and by midnight, should be out of the area completely.
Temperatures today will be held in check by the clouds and northerly winds feeding into the low pressure center. Where it rains, highs will only be in the low to mid 60s. Where it is cloudy but dry, upper 60s will be common.
Skies will quickly clear tonight as Ida departs the region. Thursday morning should start out sunny and chilly as a result. Morning lows will range from the mid and upper 50s near lakeshores to the low 50s in the higher terrain of Central New York and the western Southern Tier. Some areas of fog will be possible where it rains today.
Northwest winds will increase quickly after sunrise with gusts of 25-30 mph. A thick covering of fair weather clouds will likely develop during the mid to late morning and will stick around well into the afternoon.
Friday will be similar, with a little sun early and again late, but much of the day turning out cloudy. A few stray showers will be possible as well. It will not be quite as windy, but winds will still be out of the northwest.
High temperatures will stick to the mid and upper 60s both Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will return to the mid 70s this weekend. Saturday looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday will have scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will persist into Monday before a new system brings more widespread rain later Tuesday. The end of next week also looks unsettled, with additional showers Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s with the rest of the week in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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