Rain and a few thunderstorms as cold front moves through

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 8 2021 showers rain thunderstorms cold front
A cold front will bring rain showers to most of the region along with a few strong thunderstorms to the southeastern Finger Lakes later this afternoon. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Wet Wednesday

A slow-moving cold front will push a band of rain through the Finger Lakes, taking all day to cross the region.

Most of the immediate Finger Lakes region is dry this morning, but a band of showers and a few thunderstorms extends along Lake Erie and into far western New York. These thunderstorms should weaken by the mid-morning hours as they creep eastward into the far western Finger Lakes.

Throughout the late morning and early afternoon, this band of rain will track eastward. Most areas will see just rain with only the occasional rumble of thunder. With the rain coming during the peak time for daytime heating, temperatures will be in the low and mid 70s for much of the region.

For areas such as Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland, the rain will hold off long enough to get temperatures a bit warmer. Mid 70s will be more common and some areas will push into the upper 70s.

As the rain approaches in the mid afternoon, thunderstorms should develop within the band. Any storms that develop will have the potential to tap into strong winds aloft and quickly become organized.

Small storm segments will bring a risk primarily for damaging winds. And while the risk for an isolated tornado will be greater to the east of the Finger Lakes, it would not be out of the question for a brief spin-up over the southeastern Finger Lakes this afternoon.

The best chance for thunderstorms will come in the 3-6 PM timeframe. Chemung, Tioga, Tompkins, and Cortland counties will have the highest risk in our area. The risk will increase to the east of I-81 and especially near and south of I-88.

Once the rain departs late this afternoon, a quiet evening will settle in. A stray shower may be possible, but most areas will stay dry. Areas of fog will develop, especially over the southeastern Finger Lakes, where the rain that falls will be heavier and later in the day.

Overnight temperatures will fall back into the mid 50s, with a few warmer pockets near the lakeshores, and a few colder pockets in the western Southern Tier.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 8 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Scattered Showers

Thursday will probably start off with some glimpses of sunshine, but the sky will quickly fill in with clouds during the mid to late morning.

By the afternoon, scattered showers will start to pop up. These should be numerous enough that most areas will see a little rain during the afternoon. Individual showers will be brief, though they could contain a downpour or maybe even a little small hail.

High temperatures will be in the low 70s tomorrow, with most of the heating taking place by the early afternoon.

Showers will continue to be possible through Thursday night and into early Friday. These showers should at least partially be lake effect coming off Lake Ontario, a common late summer and early fall occurrence.

The showers will mostly come to an end by midday Friday as temperatures begin to warm aloft and dry air builds in. Some breaks of sunshine are likely Friday afternoon, leading to clear skies Friday night.

A blustery northwest wind will blow on Friday with gusts of 25-30 mph. The wind and early cloud cover will help hold high temperatures to the upper 60s.

Saturday will turn out similar to yesterday, with a good deal of sunshine and mild temperatures in the mid 70s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, but a few afternoon showers may keep most areas from quite reaching 80 degrees.

A couple more showers will be possible on Monday, but the confidence in this is low. Some more rain is likely at some point next week, but the models are all over the board with when.

Temperatures should remain near or slightly above average next week, which means plenty of 70s and a few shots at some 80s.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 8 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.