Humidity increases across the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday september 14 2021 clouds sun warm front humid
A warm front will lift through the region today, allowing warm, muggy air to move back into the area. [Photo by Lois Kozlowski]

Warm Front

Since Sunday, a frontal boundary has been stalled out over or nearby the Finger Lakes. Today, that front will move back to the north as a warm front.

Already early this morning, the front has made it about half-way north into the region. Temperatures in the southwestern Finger Lakes are in the low and mid 60s, with dewpoints not far behind. To the northeast, temperatures and dewpoints are starting out in the 50s.

There were even a couple pre-dawn thunderstorms that rode along the warm front, but these have moved out of the area and dissipated. Nothing more than a localized, brief, and very light shower is expected for the rest of the morning.

For the most part, skies will be rather cloudy this morning. Some breaks of sunshine or periods of filtered sunshine will be possible.

By the afternoon, the warm front will clear the region. The clouds should break up some, allowing for more sunshine this afternoon than this morning. A few stray showers may bubble up in the afternoon as well, but most areas will stay dry.

Temperatures will warm into the low 80s for many areas with upper 70s for higher elevations. Some mid 80s may pop up between Rochester and Geneva. Dewpoints will climb into the mid, and at times upper 60s.

South winds will ensure it stays warm and muggy tonight. Evening temperatures will stick near or above 70 and overnight lows will only be a couple degrees cooler.

Showers and storms ahead of a cold front will drift into the area from the northwest overnight but will dissipate as they do so. Therefore, the best chances for rain and thunder tonight will be for areas from Wyoming to Wayne counties.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday september 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold Front

The cold front will creep southeastward into the Finger Lakes Wednesday morning. Most of the area will just see clouds and a few stray showers initially. By the mid-morning, a band of rain and some thunder will develop from Rochester to Buffalo.

This rain band will take its time moving southeast. By the early afternoon, it should stretch roughly from Syracuse to Penn Yan to Wellsville.

Along and northwest of the front, temperatures will fall into the 60s. To the southeast, it will be pushing 80 degrees.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the mid-afternoon just ahead of the first line. These storms will pop up in the warm, humid air ahead of the front and should take over as the primary line by the late afternoon.

There may not be much time for the storms to organize before they move out of the Finger Lakes region. The further south and east, the better the chance for some strong storms. Generally speaking, the greater severe threat will be outside of our region. Only a couple isolated strong to severe storms are expected in our region, if even that.

By sunset, the front should be through the entire region. Temperatures will fall back into the mid 50s after sunset, likely resulting in areas of fog through the overnight and into early Thursday.

Thursday will be dry with a fair bit of sunshine. Temperatures will top out in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will creep back upward, though, with low and mid 60s by the late afternoon.

This level of humidity will be commonplace through the end of the week and weekend, and possibly into next week as well. Temperatures will also remain steady, with plenty of upper 70s and low 80s.

Some showers are expected Friday and Saturday. For the most part, these will be scattered and light. A quieter pattern may unfold thereafter, though it will probably rain at some point next week, if not a couple of times.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday september 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.