Rainy day as cold front drops through

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 15 2021 cold front rain thunderstorms
Rain will increase across the Finger Lakes today and especially this afternoon as a cold front moves through. [Photo by Nanci McCraine]

Rain and Thunder

A cold front will slowly make its way southeast through the Finger Lakes region today with widespread rain and thunderstorms.

To start the day, most of the region is quiet. Only a few stray showers are in the northwestern reaches of the Finger Lakes, close to the cold front.

Showers will remain scattered through the morning but will gradually increase in coverage and intensity. The focal point for precipitation will slide southeastward with the front.

By the midday, the primary band of showers and storms will be around areas such as Geneseo, Rochester, and Canandaigua. Additional showers may be popping up further east as well.

During the course of the afternoon, the first band of showers will drift east while new development occurs for areas such as Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. Some heavy downpours will be possible with these new storms.

Everything will shift to the east and depart the region by sunset.

The chances for severe weather in our region are low, but a locally strong wind gust or perhaps a little small hail are possible, mainly across Chemung, Tioga, and perhaps Tompkins and Cortland counties.

Once rain begins in an area, temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 60s. For the northwestern Finger Lakes, there will be little time this morning for temperatures to rise, so highs may not get out of the upper 60s or low 70s. In contrast, where the rain holds off longest in the eastern Southern Tier, highs could breach 80 degrees.

Areas of fog will be possible tonight, especially where it rains hard this afternoon. Temperatures will slide back into the mid 50s overnight.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 15 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quieter Weather

Morning fog will burn off as the sun rises on Thursday. The front will be far enough to the south and east that most areas should see sunshine. A few lingering clouds over the Southern Tier or Central New York will be possible.

Fair weather clouds will bubble up for the midday and afternoon hours, but no rain is expected to fall in our area. A whisper of an east wind will rustle leaves throughout the day.

Temperatures will top out in the mid 70s and dewpoints will spend most of the day in the 50s. Late in the afternoon, the dewpoint will start to creep upwards again as winds shift to the southeast.

The increase in moisture will lead to some scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Neither day looks like a washout with mainly short lived, light intensity rain showers. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, though.

High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and low 80s on Friday. Saturday will lag behind by a couple degrees, with mid and upper 70s.

An area of high pressure will build in on Sunday and take control of our weather for much of next week. After Saturday, the next best chance for rain will come next Thursday or Friday.

Temperatures will remain mild to warm. After mid 70s Sunday and Monday, highs will be closer to or above 80 much of next week. Dewpoints will probably be around or above 60, but not too oppressively high.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 15 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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