Cold Front Approaches
An area of low pressure will develop over Ohio today and track northeast across Lakes Erie and Ontario tonight as it strengthens.
This will set our region up for some active weather over the coming days as our pattern flips from warm to cool.
An ill-defined warm front is lifting north through the region this morning. There are a few stray showers, but most areas have been and will remain dry.
Skies will be mixed through the morning and into the afternoon. There should be plenty of sunshine during these periods before new clouds develop during the second half of the afternoon. These clouds will grow into some scattered showers and even a couple of thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will continue into the first part of the evening before tapering off. Not all areas will see this rain due to its scattered nature.
Light south winds will blow through the daytime hours, pushing temperatures into the mid and upper 70s. The wind will increase tonight with gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range. These winds will hold temperatures in the mid 60s overnight.
The cold front will start moving into the region Saturday morning and will slowly make its way eastward. Since the front is coming in early, there will not be time for a well-defined line of strong winds and rain to develop, except perhaps for areas east of Cayuga Lake.
Instead, rain will be on and off to start, but will gradually become steady from west to east. Some of the rain will come down hard at times, which could result in some minor flooding issues, especially if storm drains are clogged with fallen leaves.
If a more defined line does manage to develop over our eastern areas, there could be some wind gusts of 35-45 mph with the initial burst of rain.
Much of the area will see several hours of steady rain lasting well into the afternoon. Eventually, the steady rain will taper off to scattered showers, which will in turn end during the early evening hours.
Winds will turn from the south to the northwest on Saturday with the frontal passage. Gusts behind the front will approach 30 mph but should not be much beyond that.
Morning temperatures will stick in the mid 60s but will drop into the mid and upper 50s Saturday afternoon.
Pool of Cool Air
By Sunday morning, temperatures will be down into the 40s throughout the region. Near the lakes, expect upper 40s. Throughout the Southern Tier, mid 40s are likely.
There will probably be some sun to start on Sunday before fair weather clouds start to bubble up. For far northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga Counties, some lake effect rain showers will be ongoing.
By Sunday afternoon, rain showers will become more widespread as the daytime heating clashes with cold air aloft. Northwest winds off the Great Lakes will help enhance these showers. Yates, Steuben, Chemung, and Tioga counties should have the lowest chances for rain Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 50s in the Rochester-Geneva area, to the mid 50s through most of the region. Higher elevations will stick to the low 50s.
Rain showers will consolidate to the favored lake effect areas Sunday night before expanding again Monday morning. Dry air will then settle in, bringing the shower to an end and bringing sunshine back in Monday afternoon.
Monday morning will be cooler than Sunday morning. Near lake areas will be in the mid 40s with low 40s away from the lakes. Afternoon highs will be in the low 50s with higher elevations only reaching the upper 40s.
Warmer air will start to push back in for the middle of next week. Highs on Tuesday will reach the low 60s with abundant sunshine. Wednesday and Thursday will at least be in the upper 60s. Wednesday looks dry, but a few showers may move in for Thursday.
Another cold front will come in late next week with some rain with another push of colder weather moving in next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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