Brief push of warm air before more rainy weather

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 25 2021 sun clouds nighttime rain warm temperatures
Temperatures will get a boost today from a warm front, but steady and locally heavy rain is on the way Tuesday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Early Week Warmth and Rain

A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and will cause temperatures to spike today.

The rain last night was out ahead of the warm front and has mostly pushed north of the area this morning. There are still a few lingering showers, mostly near and north of I-90. These should push out by the mid-morning at the latest.

For areas south of the Thruway, a period of sunny skies is likely this morning and into the early afternoon. The further south, the greater the chance for clear skies for several hours.

Aiding the sunshine will be south winds of 5-10 mph. Many areas along and south of the Thruway should be between 65 and 70 degrees.

Near Lake Ontario, the front will stall out. Winds right along the shore of the lake may stick out of the northeast, preventing the warm air from fully arriving. Wayne, Monroe, and Genesee counties may see highs closer to 60 degrees. Be sure to check your zip-code forecast for the specifics for your town.

Clouds will increase and thicken through the afternoon, and by this evening, rain showers will start to move back in. The rain will become steady and widespread on Tuesday as low pressure stalls out just south of Long Island.

Periods of heavy rain are possible, especially as you head further south and east. Rain totals could exceed two inches for areas east of Seneca Lake, with locally over three inches across southern Tompkins, southern Cortland, and Tioga counties.

Winds Tuesday will be from the northeast and north. Temperatures will start the day in the mid 50s but will lose a couple degrees by the afternoon, ending up in the low 50s.

Rain will continue into Tuesday night before gradually tapering off. A few showers will linger early Wednesday before coming to an end.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Midweek Break

High pressure will build in on Wednesday, helping to kick the low pressure system out to sea. Sunshine will increase during the afternoon hours.

Winds will still be out of the north and may be a bit blustery at times. Top gusts Wednesday afternoon may exceed 25 mph locally.

Temperatures Wednesday will start in the mid 40s before rising to the mid 50s during the afternoon. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow temperatures to fall back into the 30s for many areas. As usual, near-lake locations will be warmest in the upper 30s to low 40s, while mid 30s with colder pockets will be widespread elsewhere.

The high pressure system will completely control our weather on Thursday with start to finish sunshine expected. Winds will be light from the east with speeds near or under 5 mph.

Temperatures will become comfortable after the chilly start with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

Southeast winds and some thin clouds will hold temperatures in the 40s Thursday night. These changes will signal the approach of the next weather system. This system should be on a weakening trend as it approaches from the southwest.

Clouds will increase further on Friday and rain should arrive sometime during the afternoon or evening. Showers will persist into Saturday, but much of the rain will probably fall during the nighttime hours.

Highs on Friday will reach the mid 50s while Saturday sits in the low 50s.

An early look at Halloween on Sunday shows an approaching front. This could help temperatures into the upper 50s ahead of the front. The front itself does not look to have much moisture, so rain may be hard to come by Sunday night.

However, when paired up with another front early next week, we may be looking at a rather cold start to November.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast
finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Laura Negronida

    Is it unusually late to not yet have had a widespread frost?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      The average date of the first frost varies greatly across our region…from around Oct. 1 in some colder pockets all the way to around Nov. 1. Most areas are somewhere in the middle of the month…so it is a bit later than average, but nothing out of the ordinary, really.