Early Week Lake Effect
A chilly air mass will invade the Finger Lakes early this week, leading to some low-impact lake effect beginning tonight.
A subtle cold front moved through last night, rotating around the persistent low pressure system that moved through over the weekend. A cool westerly flow is setting up on the backside of the low pressure system and behind the cold front.
For the most part, the airmass overhead is dry. With high pressure also nosing in from the southwest, much of today will turn out rather sunny. Some areas of mainly thin clouds are also possible, especially later this afternoon.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. The wind will be a bit blustery, coming in from the west with speeds of 10-15 mph and a few gusts approaching 30 mph.
Temperatures will drop in a hurry this evening with mid and upper 30s in the Southern Tier and low 40s to the north. Lake effect showers will develop off of Lake Erie and bring some rain to areas such as Dansville, Penn Yan, and possibly as far east as Cortland.
Overnight, with temperatures falling into the mid 30s in these areas, the rain will mix with or turn to some snow. No accumulation is expected.
Lake effect will continue through Tuesday off Lake Erie. Much of what falls will be rain, but some snow may mix in over higher terrain. The wind may take on a slightly more west-southwesterly direction, which could bring precipitation further north.
Rain and snow showers will persist through Tuesday night, but winds will begin to turn to the northwest and our lake effect will switch over to coming off Lake Ontario. The usual lake effect areas in the northeastern Finger Lakes will see the showers and flurries.
These may linger into early Wednesday but should gradually diminish.
High temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low and mid 40s. Wednesday morning will be cold with upper 20s in the south and low to mid 30s across the north.
Quiet and Slowly Moderating
Skies will end up partly cloudy to mostly clear Wednesday night as the conditions for lake effect dissipate. Many areas will dip into the 20s, though near lake locations should stick to the low 30s. Colder pockets in the Southern Tier and Central New York may end up near 25 degrees.
As a reminder, the National Weather Service considers the growing season over, even in areas that have not yet seen a frost. As such, there will be no frost or freeze alerts issued. Likewise, now that it is November, I will not be including frost in the hazards section of the zip-code forecasts.
Thursday will have a mix of sun and clouds as a weather system moves along the East Coast. Chances are high that this system will not impact us, but it is still something to keep an eye on.
Temperatures on Thursday will once again be in the mid 40s for most with a few low 40s in higher elevations. Thursday night will be similarly cold to Wednesday night, with most non-lakeshore areas between 25 and 30 degrees.
Friday will add a couple degrees to the highs. Most higher elevations will at least come close to the mid 40s, while the stretch from Rochester to Syracuse will push toward the upper 40s. Some daytime fair weather clouds will bubble up, but otherwise, it should be sunny.
The weekend is currently looking sunny and quiet as temperatures continue to slowly trend upward. Saturday morning will have upper 20s and low 30s, but the afternoon will mostly be in the upper 40s.
Sunday morning will be a touch warmer, with most areas staying near or above 30 degrees. The afternoon will see highs near or just above 50 degrees.
Temperatures will slowly build through the 50s next week with at least a chance for a continuation of the quieter weather.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.