Spits of lake effect continue but with little impact

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 3 2021 lake effect snow rain showers
Winds will turn to the northwest today sending some rain and snow showers south off Lake Ontario. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Snow and Rain Showers

Low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere continues to spin over eastern Canada, sending small impulses of energy into our region.

As these subtle disturbances pass through, they help enhance the lake effect briefly and shift the winds to send it to new places.

One such disturbance is moving by this morning. Southwest winds ahead of it have lifted the Lake Ontario band well to the north. Winds are more westerly off Lake Erie with a few snow showers across the Southern Tier.

This disturbance will turn winds to the northwest, and by midday, showers off Lake Ontario will be making their way into the northern half of the Finger Lakes. Some areas will see this fall as snow and others as rain. Elevation will make a big difference, as will location relative to the lakes.

A brief, light coating of snow will be possible, but anything that sticks will quickly melt after the individual shower moves through.

The southern half of the Finger Lakes may see a few flurries or showers as well, but the activity will be more plentiful further north, closer to Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, reaching a high in the low and mid 40s while it is not precipitating. During any showers, temperatures will drop several degrees.

The northwest winds will have speeds around 10 mph with gusts no higher than 25 mph.

Winds will shift again tonight and the lake effect will again migrate northward. Southwest winds will keep most of the area dry on Thursday, though another shift late in the day may introduce a few evening showers.

Temperatures will start Thursday in the low 30s across the north and near the lakes, with mid and upper 20s across the southern half of the region, away from the lakes. Highs will remain steady in the low and mid 40s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 3 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quiet Weather

By Friday, the lake effect should be mostly over and out of our region. Skies will be rather sunny, though some clouds will also mix in.

Morning lows will have the same split, ranging from the mid 20s to the low 30s. Afternoon highs will gain a degree or two with only a few hilltops remaining in the low 40s.

High pressure will dominate for the weekend. Clear nighttime skies will keep temperatures falling into the same mid 20s to low 30s range. However, afternoon highs will start to build.

Saturday will see a few places approaching 50 degrees with most other areas in the upper 40s. Highs near and just above 50 will become more common on Sunday, though higher terrain will remain in the upper 40s.

Later Sunday and into Monday, a low pressure system will move along the East Coast. This system is not expected to bring any precipitation to our area at this point, but some thin clouds may clip the area.

Temperatures will continue to rise. Monday morning will have morning lows mostly above freezing and afternoon highs into the low 50s for most areas. Southerly winds and some clouds Monday night into Tuesday will keep temperatures mostly in the 40s while afternoon highs reach the mid 50s.

Rain chances will start to increase late in the week, but will probably hold off mostly until the weekend. Temperatures will depend on how this evolves but generally look to stay well into the 50s until that weather maker passes and cool air returns.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 3 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.