Sunny but not quite as warm

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 10 2021 sunny cooler
Temperatures will remain near or above average through Friday, but then chilly air will move back into the Finger Lakes. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Quiet Through Thursday Evening

A small bubble of high pressure will build in today behind the cold front that moved through overnight.

Clouds are in the process of dissipating from north to south early this morning as dry air starts to build into the region. I would not be surprised if some of the cloud cover is a bit stubborn and lingers into the mid-morning hours. By the late morning and midday hours, skies should be bright and sunny though.

Skies will remain clear through much of the afternoon until a few thin clouds move in from the west around sunset. These clouds will then thicken up for the overnight.

Northwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph this morning then gradually diminish during the afternoon. These winds will bring in some slightly cooler air.

High temperatures today will be between 50-55 degrees, with the cooler end of the range coming over the higher elevations of Central New York, while the warmer end will be found in and around Rochester. This is still a couple degrees above the climatological average daily high.

Calm winds this evening will help temperatures drop, but a southeast wind will develop after midnight. Overnight lows will reach the mid and even low 30s, but temperatures will probably start to increase a couple hours before sunrise. Early morning temperatures will mostly be in the upper 30s to near 40.

The southeast wind will build through the day tomorrow, reaching speeds of 10-15 mph by the afternoon. A few gusts to 30 mph will be possible before sunset, especially over higher elevations.

The clouds will remain in place, though some sun may be able to filter through the overcast. No rain is expected during the daytime hours. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid and upper 50s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 10 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Pattern Change

A strong weather system will race through the area Thursday night and early Friday morning.

Winds will continue to increase ahead of this system until a front moves through during the predawn hours Friday morning. Wind speeds will be up to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. A few higher elevations may gust even higher.

Nighttime temperatures will stay warm with most of the night in the low 50s. Rain will arrive after midnight and will continue into Friday morning. By mid-morning Friday, the rain should be racing eastward and skies will start to clear.

Rain amounts should mostly stay under an inch thanks to the quick-moving nature of the rain. Still, it could come down hard for some brief periods of time.

Sunny skies and lighter southwest winds will hold temperatures in the mid 50s for much of Friday. Temperatures will drop back to around 40 Friday night, with winds turning to the south and clouds increasing.

A new weather system will move in on Saturday. Temperatures will make it into the mid 40s by the early afternoon but will drop thereafter as cold air starts to move into the area. Rain showers are likely throughout the day, but during the afternoon, some snow may start to mix in.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be chilly and unsettled. Lake effect will team up with several small disturbances to bring rain and snow showers to the area.

Temperatures will make a gradual retreat, with low 40s Sunday and Monday and highs not escaping the 30s on Tuesday.

Winds will change toward the middle of next week, ending the lake effect and allowing temperatures to make a run back towards 50. It will be short-lived, however, with another front moving through late in the week.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.