Wind, rain as strong cold front marches through this afternoon

finger lakes weather forecast monday december 6 2021 wind advisory cold front rain lake effect snow
Rain will be most likely during the midday and afternoon, with gusty winds persisting behind the front as cold air invades this evening. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warm Today, Chilly Tomorrow

A strong area of low pressure is moving through the Upper Great Lakes today.

Out ahead of this system, warm air moved in overnight on strong south winds. It will remain breezy this morning, but the winds will not be as strong as overnight, with gusts mainly in the 25-35 mph range.

A cold front is crossing Lake Erie and will steadily make eastward progress today. A band of rain is ahead of the front.

Showers will gradually increase this morning from west to east. Steadier rain will move through the region during the midday and afternoon hours. Many areas could see between a half inch and one inch of rainfall.

Temperatures will work their way into the low and mid 50s for much of the region by the time the rain arrives in earnest. As the rain falls steadily, temperatures will retreat to the upper 40s. Then, once the front clears late this afternoon and early this evening, temperatures will quickly fall to the mid and upper 30s.

A few places in Central New York could even see the rain turn to some snow before it ends as the sun sets, enhancing the rate of cooling.

The wind will increase slightly in the wake of the front late this afternoon and early this evening. These winds will be from the west-southwest and will gust between 30-40 mph. The wind will then weaken, with gusts mainly under 30 mph by the late evening and through the overnight.

Lake effect snow will develop this evening, but the wind direction will keep the Lake Ontario band mainly to the north and the Lake Erie bands mainly to the south. Still, a few snow showers will be possible here and there with little to no accumulation overnight.

Winds will turn more southwesterly on Tuesday, sending more of the Lake Erie band into the western reaches of our region. Parts of Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario counties could see minor accumulations, especially Tuesday evening.

Temperatures Tuesday will be the coldest of the week. After morning lows in the mid 20s, afternoon highs will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Some higher elevations, both in the western Southern Tier and in Central New York, may only rise a couple degrees for a high in the mid 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday december 6 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Light Snow, Then Warming Up

A weak weather system will pass to our south late Tuesday night and through Wednesday. This system will spread some very light snow across our region.

This snow may fall for much of Wednesday, yet accumulations will be limited to an inch or less for most areas. Temperatures will stay cool with highs in the low 30s.

A small area of high pressure will follow close behind this system and will already be to our east by Thursday morning. This will have our winds back to the south and temperatures will start to rise.

The winds will be weak on Thursday, and clouds should be plentiful. The warming will be limited, therefore, with widespread highs in the mid 30s. A few areas could sneak into the upper 30s.

Temperatures will not drop much Thursday evening and will rise in earnest Friday. A few snow showers may move through Thursday night as the push of warmer air moves in. Friday will mostly just be cloudy though, with highs working into the mid and upper 40s.

By this time, another strong low pressure system will work into the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will increase and temperatures will continue to rise as we head into Saturday. Another day in the 50s looks like a good bet at this point, with another dose of gusty winds and rain as well.

A generally mild pattern seems likely for next week with minimal chances for snow.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday december 6 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.